Brief performance review
On April 26, 2024, the company released its quarterly report for the year 24. During the period, it achieved total revenue of 46.48 billion yuan, +18.0% year over year; net profit to mother was 24.07 billion yuan, +15.7% year over year, and revenue exceeded market expectations.
Management analysis
On the product side, Maotai Liquor & Series Liquors go hand in hand. 24Q1 Maotai liquor/series wine achieved revenue of 397.1/5.94 billion yuan, +17.7%/+18.4%; direct sales/wholesale agents each achieved revenue of 193.2/26.32 billion yuan, +8.5%/+25.8% over the same period. Among them, i Maotai achieved revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, +9.0% year over year. 23Q1 i Maotai Shangmaotai 1935 was relatively high, which also caused the growth rate of the 24Q1 channel to slow down.
The profit growth rate was mainly disrupted by the pace of tax burdens. Net profit attributable to mother in 24Q1 was -1.0pct to 51.8% year over year, mainly due to taxes and surcharges during the period +1.6pct. In addition, sales expense ratio/management expense ratio was +0.5pct/-0.7pct year-on-year. In terms of delivery quality, the 24Q1 contract debt balance was 9.52 billion yuan, +1.19 billion yuan. After considering the month-on-month change in contract debt, revenue was +30.2%, which is basically consistent with the 24Q1 sales revenue of +29.3%. The quality is remarkable.
We believe that the company's outstanding brand advantage has not changed. This year's increase in performance stemmed from an increase in the volume of Maotai liquor/series liquor plus the price increase of previous flying skies, and the confidence level is high. The company meets a wider range of needs by releasing the new Four Seasons Cultural and Creative Series products and maintaining stable prices on the distribution side of Flying Sky products. There is no need to worry about short-term price fluctuations. Zodiac, boutiques, etc. still have good channel profits, and increments can also expand extracorporeal reservoirs.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect revenue growth of 16.2%/15.3%/14.2% in 24-26; net profit growth rate of 17.6%/16.5%/14.9%, corresponding net profit to mother of 879/1024/117.6 billion yuan; EPS of 69.97/81.49/93.6 yuan; and current PE valuation of the company's stock price corresponding to 24.4/21.0/18.3 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic pressure risk; industry policy risk; food safety risk