原料药业务增长强劲，大输液及仿制药业务稳定增长。2023 年和1Q24 公司净利润分别为24.6/10.3 亿元，剔除博泰影响（23 年亏损5.74 亿，计入科伦亏损约3 亿）后，我们估算公司存量业务同环比维持较快增速，分板块看：1）大输液23 年收入101.1 亿元（+7.0% YoY），由于重点品种放量，23 年销售约44 亿瓶袋，放量同比增长10%，利润端受到安全密闭式输液占比提升和基础输液带量价格联动带来的销售费用率下降影响稳步提升，我们预计1Q24 大输液贡献利润约5 亿元 (+10% YoY)，由于市场需求和竞争格局稳定，我们预计24 年放量维持10%增长。2）非输液药品2023年销售收入40.0 亿元 (-6.9% YoY)，主要受到国家及地方集采等多重外部因素影响，艾司西酞普兰、白紫及康复新液等品种集采/续标降价及男科产品降价，但1Q24 开始男科价格复苏，恩格列净、塑料水针和头孢水针等放量增长显著，我们预计24 年有望实现收入利润小幅增长。3）抗生素中间体及原料药板块23 年收入48.4 亿元 (+23.8% YoY)，其中川宁生物主要产品终端市场需求旺盛，出口销售增长强劲，满产满销，头孢价格23 年触底后24 年稳步回升，川宁增长势头在1Q24 进一步体现且降本带来明显成效，归母净利润9.4 亿元（+128.6% YoY）。2023 results met our expectations; 1Q24 slightly exceeded our expectations
The company announced 2023 results: revenue of 21.45 billion yuan, up 13.4% year on year; net profit to mother of 2.46 billion yuan, up 43.7% year on year, in line with our expectations; the company also announced 1Q24 results, 1Q24 net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, up 26.6% year on year, slightly better than our expectations, mainly due to strong demand for APIs and significant cost reduction and efficiency results, and the infusion and generic drug business grew steadily.
Development trends
The API business is growing strongly, and the large infusion and generic drug business is growing steadily. The net profit of the company in 2023 and 1Q24 was 2,46/1.03 billion yuan, respectively. Excluding the influence of Botai (loss of 574 million in 23, including Colon's loss of about 300 million yuan), we estimate that the company's stock business maintained a relatively rapid year-on-month growth rate. By sector: 1) The 23 annual revenue of large infusions was 10.11 billion yuan (+7.0% YoY). Due to the volume of key varieties released, sales volume increased 10% year-on-year. The profit side was linked to the increase in the share of safe sealed infusions and the sales price of basic infusions Expense rate The impact of the decline is increasing steadily. We expect 1Q24 large infusions to contribute about 500 million yuan (+10% YoY) to profit. Due to stable market demand and competitive landscape, we expect volume growth of 10% in 24 years. 2) Sales revenue of non-infusion drugs in 2023 was 4.0 billion yuan (-6.9% YoY), mainly affected by multiple external factors such as national and local collection. The collection/renewal price reduction of varieties such as escitalopram, white purple, and rehabilitation solutions and price reductions for male products, but male price recovery began in 1Q24, and sales volume of englicin, plastic water needles, and cephalosporin injections increased significantly. We expect to achieve a slight increase in revenue and profit in 24. 3) The antibiotic intermediates and APIs segment generated revenue of 4.84 billion yuan (+23.8% YoY) in 23 years. Among them, Twining Biotech's main product terminal market demand was strong, export sales grew strongly, and cephalosporin prices rebounded steadily for 24 years after bottoming out in 23 years. Twining's growth momentum was further reflected in 1Q24 and cost reduction brought obvious results, with net profit of 940 million yuan (+128.6% YoY).
The ADC pipeline has entered the harvest period, and we are watching clinical progress at home and abroad. The core product HER2 ADC A166 targets 3L+ HER2+ breast cancer, PD-L monoclonal antibody A167 for 3L+ NPC, and TROP2ADC SKB264 has submitted CDE listing applications for 3L+TNBC. The company expects 2H24-1H25 to be commercialized and has begun forming a self-operated sales team with Columbite. As of April 25, 2024, MSD has initiated seven key global phase III clinical trials of SKB264, covering NSCLC, breast cancer, gastric cancer, and endometrial cancer. Combined use with K drugs is also being explored. MSD also initiated a global phase 1 clinical trial of Cldn18.2 ADC SKB315 for gastrointestinal tumors.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Due to business growth and clinical progress in various sectors, we raised net profit to mother by 5% in '24 to $2.71 billion, and introduced net profit of 3.12 billion yuan for the first time in '25. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, according to the SOTP law, we raised our target price by 11.3 to 44.5 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 19.2/16.6 times in 2024/2025, with 37.3% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
Prices of antibiotic intermediates have declined; new drug releases have fallen short of expectations; progress in innovative drugs has fallen short of expectations.
