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亿联网络(300628):业绩拐点显现 VCS和商务耳麦打开成长空间

Yilian Network (300628): An inflection point in performance, VCS and business headsets open up room for growth

中信建投證券 ·  Apr 26

Core views

In 2023, industry demand faced some pressure, and 2024Q1 showed an inflection point in its performance and achieved rapid growth. The digital transformation of global enterprises and the improvement of the quality and efficiency of enterprise communication are inevitable long-term trends, and the deepening and practical use of artificial intelligence also continues to drive the development of the integrated communications industry. The company actively responds to changes in the external environment, emphasizes improving core competitiveness, and helps long-term high-quality development. With the gradual digestion of short-term adverse factors, the company's performance is expected to return to an upward channel, and we are optimistic about the company's future development trend.

occurrences

The company released its 2023 and 2024 quarterly reports. Net profit for the full year of 2023 was 4.348 billion yuan, down 9.61% year on year, realized net profit of 2.01 billion yuan, down 7.69% year on year, 2024Q1, achieved revenue of 1,164 billion yuan, up 30.95% year on year, and realized net profit of 569 million yuan, up 34.45% year on year.

Brief review

1. In 2023, demand was weak, and performance was pressured in the short term, and the 24Q1 inflection point appeared.

The full year of 2023 achieved revenue of 4.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.61%, realized net profit of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%, and realized net profit without deduction of 1,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. 2023Q4's revenue was 1,124 billion yuan, down 10.07% year on year, and realized net profit to mother of 396 million yuan, down 0.16% year on year.

Affected by the overseas environment, industry demand faced some pressure in 2023. The company's performance declined year-on-year, but in a single quarter, it is still in a recovery trend. Desktop communication terminals achieved revenue of 2,544 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.11%, accounting for 58.52% of total revenue and a gross profit margin of 67.40% (+3.64pcts), mainly due to changes in demand in some industries due to the combination of inventory cycles and changes in demand in some industries due to hybrid office trends. Conference products achieved revenue of 1,466 billion yuan, an increase of 12.81% over the previous year, accounting for 33.71% of total revenue and a gross profit margin of 65.76% (+1.07pcts). The company uses full capabilities and full scenarios as a starting point and uses AI technology in its solutions. The product continues to move towards advanced intelligence, and the first-mover advantage is obvious, and it is expected that it will continue to maintain sufficient growth momentum in the future. The cloud office terminal achieved revenue of 323 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.33%, accounting for 7.44% of total revenue, and a gross profit margin of 53.90% (+2.52pcts). The company continued to improve the competitiveness of the headset product line, completed the iterative upgrade of the BH series business Bluetooth headsets, and achieved good channel verification results. The company will continue to enrich the business headset product matrix and forge product competitiveness, and is expected to make great strides in the future.

2024Q1 showed an inflection point in its operations, achieving revenue of 1,164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.95%, and realized net profit of 569 million yuan, an increase of 34.45% year-on-year, and realized net profit without deduction of 520 million yuan, an increase of 49.33% over the previous year.

2. Implement a new phase of equity incentives, and the growth target shows confidence in the future.

In order to further establish and improve the company's multi-level long-term incentive mechanism, drive the growth of the company's potential backbone, allow more employees to share operating results with the company, and deeply bind the long-term interests of employees and the company, the company provides incentives in the form of stock options to potential cadres. The total number of incentives for this plan is 270 people, who are potential key employees who met the company's qualifications when the company announced this incentive plan. The company's new equity incentives are based on 2023 to assess 24-25 revenue and net profit: the 2024 revenue and net profit growth target is 20%, and the 2025 revenue and net profit growth target is 40%. The assessment target growth rate is high, which shows the company's confidence in development.

3. Continue to enhance product competitiveness with cloud office terminals, and conference products benefit from AI.

Cloud office terminals improve the product matrix and enhance product competitiveness. The main products of cloud office terminals include business headsets, portable conference phones, and personal mobile office cameras, mainly business headsets. The overall product line is still in the early stages of development. With the company's accumulated brand reputation, technical advantages and channel advantages in the enterprise communications market over the years, the product line is growing rapidly. In the future, the company will also continue to increase investment in R&D, continuously refine more professional intelligent audio equipment, improve the product matrix, cover diverse application scenarios, and continue to enhance product competitiveness. Conference products are bound to Microsoft and are expected to benefit from AI. The company's conference product business line always adheres to the “cloud+end” product design concept to form a one-stop complete solution. After years of development, the company's conference products have been continuously expanded and iterated, and new technologies such as AI intelligence and the Internet of Things have also been fully applied in the products. In the future, the company will continue to insist on R&D investment and product innovation, continuously enrich the smart office capability set, use AI technology to create more intelligent office and conference experiences, meet global customer needs faster and more efficiently, and strive to further increase its market share. The company continues to increase R&D investment in the field of SIP phones, driving the company's products to the high-end market. After long-term development, the company's product line has achieved leading competitiveness in the industry, and its market share continues to increase. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the company's share of the global SIP phone market was 38.2% in 2021, ranking first for five consecutive years. In the future, the company will continue to explore the high-end market, strive to further increase its global market share and maintain its position as an industry leader.

4. Profit prediction and investment advice.

The company is leading the world in the traditional desktop communication terminal business, while increasing R&D and transformation in the high-end market to seek greater market share, and also has a certain guiding role in the company's new business line; conference products are expected to benefit from AI and further increase market share; cloud office terminals continue to improve the product matrix and enhance product competitiveness; the company's long-term development trend is improving. Under the AI wave, the company is expected to fully benefit from the growth in integrated communication demand brought about by the digital transformation of enterprises. We expect the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 to be 5.231 billion yuan, 6.363 billion yuan and 7.884 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother will be 2,434 billion yuan, 2,983 billion yuan and 3.629 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 19X, 16X, and 13X, maintaining a “buy” rating.

4. Risk Alerts:

The recession in overseas economies exceeded expectations. If the overseas recession is severe, it will affect customer demand, which in turn will affect the company's operating performance.

Demand for conference products and cloud office terminals fell short of expectations, etc. Conference products and cloud office terminals are currently the company's two fastest growing product lines. They are also new business areas that the company has entered in recent years. There is a possibility that market share will increase, which is the main driving force for the company's future revenue growth.

Prices continue to rise in the supply chain and are out of stock. If overseas demand and the domestic supply chain are affected by force majeure factors, it will cause problems such as falling demand and rising supply chain costs, and there is a risk that the company's revenue will decline and gross margin will decline.

Risk of exchange rate fluctuations. The company's revenue volume mainly comes from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas markets, so exchange rate fluctuations will have a certain impact on the company's revenue and profits.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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