Sina, Nov. 1-Alan Greenspan said it was too early to bet on a recession in the United States, based on a measure of American corporate spending that he preferred.

The former Fed chairman said that while market-based signals and economists' forecasts showed that the economy was increasingly likely to suffer twists and turns, history showed that the economy would not shrink.

This is his conclusion, based on a measure of how much companies have borrowed for investment decisions in the coming months. The ratio suggests that, overall, companies have not really resumed borrowing since the financial crisis.

"the economy has been weak, but we are still in a period of deleveraging," Greenspan said in a recent interview. " His office reiterated his view on Wednesday that "at least in the past half a century, no recession has begun during a period of deleveraging."

Capital investment

His approach shows that the amount of cash that corporate boards choose to invest in long-term assets has been an "important leading indicator" of capital expenditure, he said.

Alan Greenspan

Capital expenditure data can be found in the section of the Fed's quarterly report on non-financial corporate operations, particularly capital expenditure minus inventory changes divided by total savings. The ratio has not exceeded 1 since the end of 2007. The last recession began in December of that year.

"I am cautious about the long-term outlook," Greenspan said. "at present, our real annual GDP growth rate is less than 2 per cent, and despite a marked slowdown in economic growth, we do not seem to be falling into recession."