The revenue growth rate was impressive, and the “buy” rating was maintained
In '23, the company achieved revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, +44.3% year-on-year, net profit to mother of 170 million yuan, +11.04% year-on-year; 23Q4 achieved revenue of 380 million yuan, +28.8% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.3 billion yuan, respectively, +59.3% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in gross margin in 23Q4. After deducting the impact of equity incentive expenses, the net profit after deducting equity incentives was 209 million yuan in '23, +38% year-on-year, and still achieved relatively rapid growth. In '23, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of $52 million (tax included), with a dividend ratio of 30% and a current dividend rate of 1.2%. Considering the impact of equity incentive costs and overseas operating risks, we slightly lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 2.1, 270, and 340 million (previous values were 3.1 million and 4.4 billion in 24 and 25), corresponding to PE of 20.1, 16.0, and 12.5 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
24Q1 profit grew steadily, and new orders reached a record high
24Q1 achieved revenue of 288 million yuan, +42.4% year-on-year, with non-net profit attributable to mother and net profit of 0.30 million, or +12.94% year-on-year, +5.52% and +12.94% year-on-year. Excluding share payments, non-net profit was 46 million yuan, an increase of 80.55% year-on-year. The gross margin for the 24Q1 quarter increased 4.77pct year on year to 37.33%, and the fee ratio for the period rose 2.65 pct year on year to 21.27%. Of these, share payment expenses were 17.34 million, and asset and credit impairment losses increased by 12 million year over year. 580 million new orders were signed in 24Q1, a record high, mainly distributed in Southeast Asia and Saudi Arabia.
Pile foundation projects have achieved rapid growth, and overseas prospects are promising
By business, in '23, the company's foundation treatment and pile foundation projects achieved revenue of 999 million, respectively, +30.93%, +149.33%, gross margins of 38.28% and 19.48%, year-on-year changes of -1.69pct and +6.67pct. The comprehensive gross margin was 34.3%, -2.08pct year on year, of which overseas revenue increased 81.1% year on year. The gross margin for the 23Q4 quarter was 36.80% respectively, +12.19pct year-on-year. New contracts were signed in '23 billion yuan, or -33.7% year-on-year, of which new overseas orders accounted for 80.22%; by the end of '23, on-hand orders were 890 million yuan, or 0.7 times the revenue in '23.
The cost rate increased slightly during the period, and project payback was stable
The company's expense ratio for the 23-year period was 15.7%, up 1.04pct year on year, and sales, management, R&D, and finance cost ratios changed by -0.19, -0.18, -0.15, and +1.56pct, respectively. The increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to a decrease in exchange income and interest income. Asset and credit impairment losses in '23 were $25 million, an increase of $18 million over the previous year. The net interest rate in '23 fell 4.11pct to 13.60% under the combined impact. The net amount of CFO in '23 was 134 million, and the current payout ratios were 92.34% and 93.42%, respectively. The year-on-year changes were -2.35pct and +4.91pct, and the project payback was stable.
Risk warning: International business risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, new project signing, and construction progress falling short of expectations.