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龙源电力(001289):一季度营收基本持平 归母净利润略有上升

Longyuan Electric Power (001289): Revenue remained flat in the first quarter and net profit to mother increased slightly

中信建投證券 ·  Apr 26

Core views

In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 9.887 billion yuan, an increase of 0.10% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 23.93 yuan, an increase of 2.47% over the previous year. As of March 31, 2024, the company's controlled installed capacity was 36155.83 megawatts, of which the installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaics and other renewable energy and thermal power was 27780.64, 6500.19, and 1875.00 megawatts, respectively. From January to January 2024, the company achieved a total power generation capacity of 21.225 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 8.27% over the previous year. Wind power, thermal power and other renewable energy generation volumes were 170.31, 25.81, and 1,613 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.27%, +1.37%, and +233.33%. In the first quarter of 2024, the company used 640 hours and 1,377 hours of wind and thermal power. Considering market-based electricity transactions and electricity supply and demand patterns, in the short term, the company's new energy feed-in tariffs may be under pressure. Over the long term, China is still continuing to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. It is actively making efforts to promote the consumption of new energy sources, promote full coverage of green certificates, and application expansion. The environmental value of green electricity is expected to be realized, and the company's business performance is expected to grow steadily.

occurrences

Company releases report for the first quarter of 2024

In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 9.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.10%; net profit of 23.93 yuan to mother, an increase of 2.47%; net profit without return to mother of 2,397 billion yuan, an increase of 4.43 percent year-on-year, and a weighted average return on net assets of 3.40%, down 0.05 percentage points from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share was 0.28 yuan/share, up 4.07% year on year. From January to January 2024, the company achieved a total power generation capacity of 21.225 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 8.27% over the previous year. Wind power, thermal power and other renewable energy generation volumes were 170.31, 25.81, and 1,613 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.27%, +1.37%, and +233.33%.

Brief review

The revenue scale was basically the same, and net profit to mother improved year-on-year

In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 9.887 billion yuan, an increase of 0.10% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 23.93 yuan, an increase of 2.47% over the previous year. In terms of cash flow, the company's net cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter of 2024 was $3.418 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.85%. Net cash flow from investment activities was -6.852 billion yuan, up 15.83% year on year, mainly due to the investment expenditure of 1.96 billion yuan in Guoneng Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the Group, in the same period last year. There were no such major investment expenses in the current period; net cash flow from financing activities was 2.268 billion yuan, down 21.56% year on year, mainly due to current loan repayment falling 21.56% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's investment income increased 200% year over year, mainly due to the increase in investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures in the current period.

Installed capacity is steadily increasing, and power generation continues to increase

As of March 31, 2024, the company controlled an installed capacity of 36155.83 megawatts, of which the installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaics and other renewable energy and thermal power was 27780.64, 6500.19, and 1875.00 megawatts, respectively. From January to January 2024, the company added 562.16 megawatts of installed capacity, of which wind power and photovoltaics were 26.25 and 57.51 megawatts, respectively. From January to January 2024, the company achieved a total power generation capacity of 21.225 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 8.27% over the previous year. Wind power, thermal power and other renewable energy generation volumes were 170.31, 25.81, and 1,613 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.27%, +1.37%, and +233.33%.

In terms of hours used, in the first quarter of 2024, the company used 640 hours and 1,377 hours for wind and thermal power, a change of -14 hours and +140 hours from last year. The year-on-year increase in the number of hours used by the company's wind power was mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in wind speed. The year-on-year decline in the number of hours used by thermal power was mainly due to an increase in electricity demand in Jiangsu and an increase in thermal power load.

Feed-in electricity prices may be under pressure, and the environmental value of green power is expected to be realized, giving “additional” rating companies a year-on-year increase in power generation in the first quarter but the scale of revenue remained basically the same. We think this may be due to the impact of feed-in tariffs. Considering market-based electricity transactions and electricity supply and demand patterns, in the short term, the company's new energy feed-in tariffs may be under pressure. Over the long term, China is still continuing to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. It is actively making efforts to promote the consumption of new energy sources, promote full coverage of green certificates, and application expansion. The environmental value of green electricity is expected to be realized, and the company's business performance is expected to grow steadily. We expect the company's net profit to be 6.631 billion yuan, 7.427 billion yuan, and 8.394 billion yuan respectively from 2024 to 2026, corresponding to EPS of 0.79 yuan/share, 0.89 yuan/share, and 1.00 yuan/share, respectively.

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