Incident: The company released its quarterly report for the year 24, achieving revenue of 76 million yuan/yoy +12% in 24Q1, net profit of 0.5 billion yuan to mother, and 101 million yuan in 23Q1.

As of March 31, '24, the company's contract debt balance was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 23% compared with 221 million yuan in 23Q1. The main reason was that exhibitors reduced their advance payment ratio due to cash flow considerations. The company's minimum pre-payment ratio is 50%. Assuming that the average prepayment ratio for 23 years was 70% of the contract amount, the company's contract amount at the end of the first quarter was about 238 million yuan/yoy +8% in the context of restoring the prepayment ratio.

The company's booth distribution throughout the year was extremely seasonal. 23Q4 revenue/net profit accounted for 44%/57% of the annual revenue, respectively. The key sales stage was from the beginning of summer to before the 11th. Follow-up attention was paid to booth sales progress before the peak season, changes in contract debt amounts, and repayment progress.

Profit forecast: The company's revenue for 24-26 is expected to be 11.9/1.76 billion yuan, up 43%/23%/21% year on year, and net profit to mother will be 2.7/3.5/4.6 billion yuan respectively, up 43%/31%/29% year on year. The current stock price corresponds to PE 19/15/11X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risk, risk that booth sales progress falls short of expectations.