Event: The company announced results for the first quarter of 2024. The first quarter of 2024 achieved operating income of 270 million yuan, an increase of 50.64% year on year; net profit to mother was 61 million yuan, up 229.52% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 60 million yuan, an increase of 228.95% year on year.
Chickenpox is stable, and shingles dosage can be expected. Compared to the same period last year, 2024Q1 shingles achieved high revenue growth. The decline in gross margin of the chickenpox vaccine during the same period last year led to a low profit base and a more obvious increase in profit. Batch issuance: 24Q1 issued 21 batches of the chickenpox vaccine batch and 12 batches for the herpes zoster batch.
The net interest rate has increased, and the three-fee rate has been optimized. 2024Q1 Corporation's gross profit margin was 89.72% (+3.84pp) and net profit margin 22.41% (+12.16pp). 2024Q1 sales expenses of 100 million yuan (+40.27%), sales rate 36.98% (-2.73 pp); management expenses of 35 million yuan (+10.46%), management fee rate 13.04% (-4.74pp); R&D expenses of 47 million yuan (+40.54%), R&D rate 17.37% (-1.25pp); financial rate -0.54% (+1.64pp).
The research pipeline layout is rich, and it has entered the mRNA technology platform. The company's components are also worth paying attention to, such as the liquid preparation for nasal spray influenza, all-human anti-rabies monoclonal antibody, all-human anti-tetanus monoclonal antibody, Hib, influenza virus lysis vaccine (BK-01 adjuvant), and recombinant shingles vaccine. The company gradually increased capital and acquired shares in mRNA company Communication Biotech, and eventually held 100% of the shares, further enriching the company's technical platform and product pipeline and building a moat for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: According to the company's latest performance and future plans, we adjusted the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to 25.23 billion yuan, 31.22, and 3,591 billion yuan (prior adjusted values were 26.45, 33.87, and 4.128 billion yuan, respectively), up 38.26%, 23.75%, and 15.03% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 7.33, 9.50 billion yuan, and 1,121 billion yuan respectively (pre-adjusted values were 7.70 billion yuan, 10.29 billion yuan, 1,290 million yuan, respectively), an increase of 46.37% over the previous year. 29.50%, 18.07%
As the leader of the chickenpox vaccine, the company is expected to resume doses of nasal spray influenza, contribute significantly to the marketing of shingles, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations, risk of vaccine product sales falling short of expectations, risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; risk of vaccine failure due to coronavirus mutations; risk of delayed information or untimely updates in public data used in research reports.