① The popularity of auto shows has led to a rebound in Hong Kong auto stocks. Which individual stocks are the most active? ② The agency expects the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles to exceed 30% in April. How will the industry sentiment change?
Financial Services Association, April 26 (Editor: Feng Yi) The Hong Kong stock auto sector fluctuated higher today, and collectively rallied in the afternoon.
As of press release, Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868.HK) and Zero Sports Auto (09863.HK) both rose more than 8%, Ideal Automobile-W (02015.HK) and NIO SW (09866.HK) all rose by more than 6%, while BYD shares (01211.HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238.HK), and Geely (00175.HK) have all risen.
According to news, the 2024 Beijing Auto Show officially opened on April 25 (Wednesday). According to reports, the scale of this year's Beijing Auto Show is unprecedented, and new energy and intelligence have once again become the “key words” of the industry.
Mainstream domestic and foreign car companies also brought high-standard new products to the exhibition. This time, 117 cars were launched, including 30 from joint ventures; 41 concept cars, and 278 new energy models. The popularity of auto shows has also brought huge traffic and attention to various car companies.
Cui Yan, an analyst at Minsheng Securities, said in an April 25 report that the highlights of this auto show are the intense concentration of new cars from independent brands, and the overall supply is high-end and differentiated.
In addition to the short-term catalysis of auto shows, production and sales in the domestic automobile industry continued to grow in the first quarter, and the continued boom in new energy exports also supported the rebound in auto stocks.
According to data released earlier by the China Automobile Association, in the first quarter, China's automobile production and sales completed 6.66 million vehicles and 6.72 million units respectively, up 6.4% and 10.6% year-on-year respectively, achieving a “good start” for the first quarter.
Among them, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million units and 2.09 million units respectively in the first quarter, up 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year respectively, higher than the overall growth rate. In the same period, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.783 million units, up 33.3% year on year, and 307,000 units were exported, up 23.8% year on year.
However, since the domestic car market is still mired in a quagmire of price wars, the market places more importance on the performance of car companies and their sales prosperity.
According to a report from Dongwu Securities analysts on April 24, the forecast for April is that the industry's wholesale sales volume may be 1.73 million units, down 3.3% and 21%, respectively, from the same period last month, while retail sales of new energy sources are expected to be 650,000 units, an increase of about 31.9% over the previous year.
It is worth noting that the intense internal volume of the domestic market has also made export sentiment a key variable affecting the current auto stock market.
Data show that in the first quarter, BYD exported 99,000 vehicles, up 1.3 times year on year; Great Wall exported 93,000 vehicles, up 78.5% year on year; Geely exported 11,000 vehicles, up 65.1% year on year.
China Merchants Securities said that BYD's export volume for the first three months exceeded expectations. Currently, the bank expects to export more than 500,000 vehicles for the whole year, which is higher than the company's original guideline of 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles. Rapid export growth and an increase in the share of high-end models can all enhance profitability.
Furthermore, this week, Great Wall Motor revealed that net profit for the first quarter surged more than 17 times. Since then, the stock price has continued to rise sharply, benefiting from the increase in gross margin driven by exports and high-end models.
According to reports, Xiaopeng Motors is also speeding up the development of overseas markets and considering overseas production. Zero Sports also revealed earlier that it plans to open 200 overseas sales outlets in 2024, aiming for over 10,000 sales.
Minsheng Securities believes that 2024 will be a year for independent brands to gain strength in overseas markets and accelerate their implementation. Passenger car exports are expected to reach 5.2 million units throughout the year, an increase of 27.5% over the previous year. High-quality autonomous leaders such as BYD, Changan, Great Wall, Chery, and Geely are expected to accelerate globalization.