The company's performance in 2023 grew rapidly. For the first time in the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1,887 billion yuan, up 84.46% year on year; net loss to mother was 396 million yuan, loss decreased by 23.70% year on year; net loss after deduction was 64 million yuan, and loss decreased by 83.91% year on year. The company achieved revenue of 613 million yuan in the first quarter of 2024, an increase of 86.3% over the previous year. Net profit to mother was 74 million yuan, and net profit not returned to mother was 157 million yuan, which changed from loss to profit. The sales revenue of the company's core product restructuring Eight Factors (Anjiayin) continued to grow rapidly in 2023, which is basically in line with expectations. In view of the company's continued investment in R&D and sales, we lowered 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. The net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 3.42/7.19/957 million yuan (originally estimated at 414/1,030 million yuan), EPS is 0.77/1.62/2.15, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 56.5/26.9/20.2 times. The company's commercial product matrix is beginning to take shape. There are many subsequent growth points, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The recombinant factor VIII continues to be rapidly released domestically, and the overseas layout is progressing smoothly. The company's sales of recombinant human coagulation factor VIII products (Anjiayin) in 2023 were about 1.78 billion yuan, up 77% year on year, and the product gross profit margin was 97.42%, up 0.53 pp year on year. Relying on highly competitive production capacity and cost advantages, the company actively responds to the intensification of competition and procurement challenges in various provinces and cities, ensures that Anjiain wins bids for collection in key provinces, and has achieved continuous rapid growth in product sales and a steady increase in market share. During the reporting period, Anjia has submitted separate drug registration applications to Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, India and other countries. It is expected that after Anjia is marketed overseas in 2025, it will bring an increase in the company's performance.
The commercial product matrix is beginning to take shape, and the clinical pipeline rapidly promoted the company's first antibody drug, repatumab, successfully entered medical insurance in December 2023, laying the foundation for the 2024 product to enter more hospitals and open up sales space; adalimumab biosimilar drugs and bevacizumab antibiotics were approved for marketing in June 2023, and will gradually contribute to sales revenue in the future. Furthermore, PD-1 monoclonal finolizumab injections were accepted by NMPA for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and first-line treatment with bevacizumab for hepatocellular carcinoma. The company spent 1,148 billion yuan on R&D in 2023, an increase of 29.59% over the previous year, of which about 370 million yuan was invested in the COVID-19 vaccine. It is expected that R&D expenses will decrease in 2024 over the same period last year.
Risk warning: Risks such as product sales falling short of expectations; worsening of the competitive landscape; new product launches falling short of expectations; products going overseas falling short of expectations.