Investment advice: Maintain profit forecasts and “gain” ratings. We are maintaining our 24-25 profit forecast and adding a 26-year forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 468/58,623 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS is 0.32/0.38/0.42 yuan, respectively, -27% (minus +16%)/+19%/+12%, maintaining the target price of 6.2 yuan.
The results are in line with forecasts and quick reports. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 4.106 billion yuan, +7.52% year on year, net profit of 644 million yuan, +113.28% year on year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 404 million yuan, +47.12% year on year; of these, 2023Q4 achieved operating income of 869 million yuan, -24.55% year on year, and net profit of 59 million yuan, or -10.63% year on year.
The new energy sector contributed to revenue growth, putting pressure on the traditional home appliance spare parts and materials business. In 2023, the company's household appliance PTC/new energy vehicle PTC/new energy equipment manufacturing/optical communication materials/lithium battery materials business revenue was -3%/+23%/+35%/-31%/-23%, respectively. Among them, the pre-nickel-plated materials business grew lower than expected, mainly because demand for large cylindrical batteries increased at a slower pace than expected. In terms of customer expansion, 23H2 progressed faster than in the first half of the year, and customers such as Hisida and Hikindumen began mass supply in the consumer electronics sector.
Profit side: PTC's business structure has improved significantly. In '23, shovel-blade products in PTC home appliances gradually replaced the adhesive type, with an average shipping price of +2.8%, and gross margin of business +2.5pcts; the 23H2 NEV plumbing PTC supply ratio increased dramatically, the average shipping price was +10%, and the gross profit margin of the business was +2.3 pcts year over year.
Risk warning: Demand for downstream air conditioning weakens due to declining real estate completion, reduced equipment investment due to excessive polysilicon production, and increased competition in the NEV industry affects supplier profitability