The company discloses its 2023 annual report. According to the annual report, in 2023, the company achieved revenue of 608.4 billion yuan, 6.44% year on year; net profit of 12.988 billion yuan, +13.58% year over year; of these, 23Q4 achieved revenue of 187.8 billion yuan, 7.32% year on year; and net profit to mother of 3.498 billion yuan, +23.98% year over year.
Operating cash flow is generally steady, and capital expenditure has increased dramatically. According to the annual report, in 2023, the company's net operating cash flow inflow was 22.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6 billion yuan, mainly due to a decrease in tax rebates received; the annual capital expenditure was 73.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9 billion yuan over the previous year.
Vigorously develop new energy investment and operation, and the installed capacity reached 27GW at the end of the year. According to the annual report, ① Engineering contracting and survey design: 23-year revenue of 550.6 billion yuan, gross profit margin of 10.84%, and +0.98pct year over year; the increase in revenue and gross margin in this sector is mainly due to the rapid expansion of the scale of the company's new energy business such as solar power engineering contracting while consolidating traditional business advantages such as water conservancy and hydropower.
② Electricity investment and operation: 23-year revenue of 23.978 billion yuan, gross profit margin of 44.40%, year-on-year +4.27pct; of these, new energy's 23-year revenue was 9.51 billion yuan, +10.0% year-on-year, gross profit margin 52.50%, year-on-year -3.20pct; in 23, additional holding grid-connected installed capacity 6.8 GW; cumulative installed capacity of 27.2 GW, of which wind power 8.4 GW (+10% year over year), solar power 7.7 GW (YoY +190%), hydropower 6.9GW (YoY -0.1%)), thermal power 3.6 GW (+15% YoY), independent energy storage 0.6 GW (YoY +1006%); ③ Green gravel: By the end of 2023, the company had reserves of 8.934 billion tons of green gravel resources, a design capacity of 505 million tons/year, and a production capacity of 132 million tons/year. In 2023, sales volume was approximately 90 million tons, with revenue of 4.63 billion yuan.
Treasury bond projects are being implemented at an accelerated pace, and the company is expected to benefit. According to CCTV, on April 17, the Deputy Director of the Development and Reform Commission said that it has completed issuing a list of all three batches of additional treasury bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan, which will push all additional treasury bond issuance projects to commence before the end of June '24. Investment in additional treasury bonds mainly focuses on water conservancy, disaster prevention, etc., and the company is expected to benefit as a leader in water conservancy construction.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 148/169/18.9 billion yuan, respectively. The reasonable value judgment of 7.50 yuan/share remains unchanged, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: International business risk; competition increases risk; financial pressure for business expansion increases.