Starting in February 2024, all parts of the country have taken many measures to promote “trade-in” of automobiles and home appliances to stimulate consumption vitality. Air conditioning schedule data showed beautiful performance, automobile sales data, and refrigerants continued the upward trend.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that starting in February 2024, all parts of the country will take measures to promote “trade-in” of automobiles and home appliances to stimulate consumption vitality. Air conditioning schedule data has performed beautifully, automobile sales data, and refrigerants will continue the upward trend. As quota management is implemented, supply-side structural reforms continue to be deepened, and the competitive pattern of the industry is concentrated, while downstream demand continues to grow steadily and demand in new fields and emerging markets develops rapidly, it is optimistic that third-generation refrigerants will continue to recover, and there is a strong certainty that the supply and demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to focus on leading fluorine chemical enterprises and upstream resource leaders with complete industrial chains, complete infrastructure facilities, leading scale, and advanced process technology.
Related targets: Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH), Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH), Haohua Technology (), Jinshi Resources (USD), Dongyangguang (Sichuan), etc. 600378.SH 603505.SH 600673.SH
The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
Review of fluorine chemical market in April
As of April 25, the Chemical Industry Index/CCPI/Fluorine Chemical Index reported 3261.3/4695/1297.47 points respectively, up from +0.63%/+1.01%/-8.21% at the end of the previous month, respectively. In April, the Fluorine Chemical Industry Index outperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 8.65%; the Fluorine Chemical Industry Index outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 8%. Guoxin Chemical's Fluorine Chemical Price Index/Refrigerant Price Index reported 1141.67/1276.57 points respectively, +0.63%/+1.01%/-8.21% respectively compared to the end of the previous month.
As of April 25, the export volume of R32 products has declined compared to the same period last year, but domestic market demand has clearly warmed; the R22 market has sold 25,000-26,000 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are subject to after-sales demand to increase digestion; the R134a market price maintained a steady operation in the 31000-32,000 yuan/ton range, and the early pullback momentum improved significantly in April; the R125 market implemented 42000-45,000 yuan/ton; the R32 market had a scattered order market of 30000-31000 due to strong production demand from air conditioning companies Yuan/ton, the export market continues to warm up. R410a implemented 35,000-37,000 yuan/ton due to the strong R32 and R125 markets for raw materials. The market is still showing a positive trend. It is expected that due to strong demand for production schedules from May to June, the shortage in the market will still be difficult to ease.
In addition, the price of fluorite rose markedly this month: 97% fluorite wet powder was priced at 3,510 yuan/ton, up 7.18% from the February low.
All parts of the country have successfully launched “trade-in” activities for home appliances and vehicles, and third-generation refrigerants have maintained a high level of prosperity
March is the peak season for household air conditioners. In March 2024, production and sales of household air conditioners were 21.80.8/22.49,000 units, respectively, +23.4%/+21.6% (including domestic sales +17.8%; exports +26.6%); in March 2024, automobile production and sales completed 2.68 million units and 2.694 million units respectively, up 78.4% and 70.2%, respectively.
In the long run, the global air conditioning market will continue to grow, and industries such as cold chain/heat pumps/new energy vehicles will open up space for refrigerant demand. 2023Q4 is boosted by multiple factors such as the peak season for traditional refrigerant stocking, low inventories of early enterprises and markets, and expectations of implementation of quota plans, refrigerant prices have entered an upward channel. Starting in February 2024, all parts of the country have taken many measures to promote “trade-in” of automobiles and home appliances to stimulate consumption vitality. Air conditioning schedule data showed beautiful performance, automobile sales data, and refrigerants continued the upward trend.
Fluorine chemical highlights in April:
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment requires strict control of hydrofluorocarbon chemical production and construction projects; the 2024 China Refrigeration Exhibition was successfully held in Beijing, with thousands of enterprises showcasing new low-carbon technologies; the European Union issued a follow-up action plan to the PFAS restriction proposal and will hold three committee meetings for different industries; promoting special fluorite mine remediation work to promote the improvement of the essential safety and security level and management capacity of fluorite mines; all parts of the country have successfully carried out “trade-in” activities in the home appliance industry, resulting in a multi-win situation of government subsidies, corporate exemptions, and consumer trade-ins; the first batch of “white list” projects completed the review, Real estate financing coordination mechanisms and financing “white lists” are working, etc.
Risk warning: demand for fluorine chemical products falls short of expectations; policy risks (stricter environmental protection policies for fluorine refrigerants, accelerated upgrading process, changes in quota issuance policies, etc.); global trade frictions and export blocking; sluggish real estate cycle prosperity; production progress of various companies' projects falls short of expectations; rising raw material prices; chemical production safety risks, etc.