各下游毛利率均有所恢复，电力设备行业毛利贡献明显提升分行业来看，石油化工营收同比+27.8%，毛利率16.29%（yoy+1.17pct），低端产品竞争有所加剧，而高端产品国产化带动毛利率提升；天然气行业营收同比-59.9%，毛利率31.05%（yoy+13.83pct），行业新增项目有所减少，但公司生产成熟度、成本控制显著提升，毛利率大幅改善；电力设备营收同比+55.3%，毛利率13.19%（yoy+3.51pct），主因受行业政策影响，公司在手订单充足，23 年公司电力设备行业毛利占比达10.8%（yoy+3.4pct）；此外，机械设备营收同比+27.85%，毛利率17.79%（yoy+3.80pct），主因所服务的石化行业、新能源行业项目较多，订单增加、毛利率明显改善。Net profit to mother in '23 was +63.43% year-on-year. The company that maintained the “increased holdings” rating achieved revenue of 3,516 billion yuan (yoy +24.21%) in '23, and net profit of 352 million yuan (yoy +63.43%). Considering the company's production capacity release and changes in downstream demand, etc., we lowered our sales volume and gross margin assumptions. The company's net profit for 24-26 is 4.62/5.22/ 622 million yuan (previous value: 594/6.77/ 100 million yuan), and the comparable average PE (2024E) value is 11.4X. Considering the company's leading position in industrial stainless steel pipes, the company was given a PE valuation of 12.5 times in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 10.25 yuan (previous value of 9.00 yuan) to maintain the “increase” rating.
Business continues to improve, and the volume of pipe products has risen sharply
By product, in '23, the company sold 512,000 tons of seamless pipes (yoy +10.66%), gross profit margin of 16.5% (yoy+2.03pct); welded pipe sales volume was 35,100 tons (yoy +21.87%), gross profit margin 17.20% (yoy+2.68pct); in addition, pipe fittings product revenue increased by 132.85% year on year, with a gross profit margin of 33.18% (yoy+22.01 pct), mainly benefiting from increased orders for new energy and specialty materials. Overall, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in '23 was 16.66% (yoy+2.36pct), and the total sales volume of seamless pipes and welded pipes was 86,300 tons (yoy +15.0%).
All downstream gross margins have recovered. The gross profit contribution of the power equipment industry has increased markedly. By industry, petrochemical revenue was +27.8%, gross profit margin 16.29% (yoy+1.17pct), competition for low-end products intensified, while localization of high-end products led to an increase in gross margin; natural gas industry revenue was -59.9% YoY, gross profit margin 31.05% (yoy+13.83pct). New projects in the industry have decreased, but the company's production maturity and cost control have improved significantly, and gross margin improved significantly; power equipment revenue was +55.5% (yoy+5.83pct) The gross profit margin was 13.19% (yoy+3.51pct), mainly due to the influence of industry policies, and the company's power equipment industry's gross profit ratio reached 10.8% (yoy+3.4pct) in '23; in addition, machinery and equipment revenue was +27.85%, gross profit margin 17.79% (yoy+3.80pct), mainly due to the large number of projects served in the petrochemical industry and new energy industry. Orders increased and gross margin improved markedly.
24Q1 gross margin continued to improve, and the expense ratio increased during the period
According to the company's operating data announcement, 24Q1 has a total output of 16,700 tons of seamless pipes and welded pipes (yoy -19.3%, qoq -22.1%), sales volume of 18,700 tons (yoy -13.2%, qoq -12.2%), average sales price of 37,730 yuan/ton (yoy +4.0%, qoq +3.7%), and the company's 24Q1 gross profit margin is 18.35% (yoy+4.1pct, qoq+2.1pct), we estimate gross profit per ton of about 7159 yuan/ (yoy) +1,419 yuan/ton, qoq+1103 yuan/ton), the company's profitability continues to improve. In terms of period expenses, the 24Q1 company's expenditure rate for the period was 5.60% (yoy+0.79pct), which increased, of which the R&D expenses rate was 1.45% (yoy+0.58pct).
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials have fluctuated greatly, downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and industry competition has intensified.
