In the context of the accelerated withdrawal of Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, the share and voice of domestic panel manufacturers has steadily increased, leading to an increase in demand for domestic alternatives to polarizers.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that in the context of the accelerated withdrawal of Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, the share and voice of domestic panel manufacturers has been steadily increasing, which has led to an increase in demand for domestic alternatives to polarizers. Considering that the domestic production capacity of Japanese and Korean companies cannot meet the needs of panel manufacturers, and that domestic production of upstream materials for polarizers can effectively reduce raw material procurement costs, domestic panel manufacturers have strong demand for localization of polarizers, and there is plenty of alternative kinetic energy, so the future of polarizers is expected to accelerate localization. At the same time, in the field of higher-end OLED polarizers, domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve breakthroughs in production capacity and yield, and we are optimistic about the performance release and profitability improvement of manufacturers in the domestic polarizer industry chain under the major trend of accelerated domestic production.
The panel recovery trend is clear, and production capacity continues to shift domestically. Under the combined effects of demand-side recovery and supply contraction, panel prices are stabilizing, and the overall upward trend in TV panel prices is expected to continue in March. According to Witsview data, panel prices are currently at the bottom of the cycle. As domestic manufacturers actively reduce operating rate and control panel production capacity, overseas manufacturers' production capacity is being withdrawn at an accelerated pace, the relationship between supply and demand continues to be optimized, and the price recovery trend is gradually being established.
With the closure of Sharp's 10th generation line and LG's Guangzhou 8.5 generation line seeking sale, the share advantage of domestic manufacturers was further strengthened. According to statistics on panel area, according to Omdia data, domestic panel production capacity (by panel area) reached 67.8% of global production capacity in 23, an increase of 2.3 pct over the previous year. It is estimated that domestic panel production capacity calculated by area will reach 69.4% of global production capacity by 24, continuing to increase 1.7 pct year on year.
As the core material for panels, polarizers have a large industry scale and high technical barriers. Japanese and South Korean manufacturers account for the main share. Domestic substitution is still in its infancy, and there is plenty of room for growth. According to data from Huajing Industrial Research Institute, polarizers account for about 10% of panel costs. According to Guanyanxia data, due to the high technical threshold of polarizers, the polarizer market is mainly occupied by Japanese and South Korean companies such as Sumitomo Chemical, Nitto Electric, and LG Chemical. Nitto Electric is the world's largest manufacturer of polarizers, and the multi-layer optical compensation film for LCD televisions it produced accounted for more than 40% of the global market share in 23 years.
Currently, domestic manufacturers mainly produce TN and STN polarizer products. There are only two domestic companies that can produce TFT-LCD polarizers on a large scale: Sanli Spectrum and Shengbo Optoelectronics. According to joint research industry consulting data, the domestic polarizer market is expected to exceed 35 billion yuan in 2023. The scale of the industry is huge, and there is plenty of room for domestic polarizer manufacturers to replace it.
From a downstream perspective, TV is the main application area for LCD polarizers. The stable high shipping base of TV panels guarantees the size of the LCD polarizer industry; mobile terminals are the main application areas for OLED polarizers. The LCD polarizer market space is mainly contributed by TV panels. As a result, its growth rate is weaker than that of OLED polarizers. The market space growth rate of OLED polarizers is stronger and the technical barriers are higher. As the penetration rate of OLEDs continues to increase, there is broad room for growth. Compared to LCD polarizers, OLED polarizers have higher technical barriers, especially on mobile phones. Since smartphone display space is more compact, OLED phone polarizers are required to meet the requirements of miniaturization and high accuracy, the technical barriers are more complicated, and it is difficult to improve yield.
Recommended attention: Domestic polarizer manufacturer Shanshan Co., Ltd. (600884.SH), Sanli Spectrum (002876.SZ), Shenzhen Textile A (000045.SZ).
Risk warning: Downstream recovery falls short of anticipated risks; domestic substitution falls short of anticipated risks.