The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that the current gold-to-silver ratio has reached a historical high of around 90, and the price of silver may be significantly underestimated. Historically, there have only been a few cases where the ratio of gold to silver exceeds 90, usually related to a specific geopolitical situation or economic environment. For example, geopolitical tension between 1991 and 1992 and the wave of interest rate cuts in September last year all affected the gold to silver ratio. From a historical perspective, the average gold to silver ratio is between 40:1-50:1. With the gradual recovery of economic activity and changes in market sentiment, the gold to silver ratio is expected to be adjusted, which indicates potential room for future increases in silver prices.
Recommended attention: Shengda Resources (000603.SZ), Societe Generale Silver Tin (000426.SZ), Yintai Gold (000975.SZ).
Tianfeng Securities's views are as follows:
To a certain extent, silver is a more complex version of gold, and financial attributes and industrial attributes combine to price it.
Goldsilverratio (goldsilverratio) is a numerical value obtained by comparing the prices of gold and silver, and is used to analyze technical analysis of gold and silver prices. The price trends of gold and silver have converged in the past ten years, and the extent of the increase in gold and silver prices is also different from the time period during which they occurred. These differences and similarities are determined by the respective properties of gold and silver. The financial attributes of gold are stronger than the properties of commodities. Silver not only has financial properties, but its demand situation also reflects the trend of economic development. Industrial attributes have a high proportion of silver's pricing model.
The silver market is showing a trend where supply and demand are tight.
The main contradiction between the supply and demand side of silver is that the supply side is limited, including a slowdown in the growth of mineral silver production and a decrease in the supply of recycled silver. Mineral silver accounts for the vast majority of supply on the supply side. The supply of silver has remained around 25,000 tons, and there has been no significant increase on the mining side. On the demand side, industrial applications account for about 50% of total demand. From 2021 to 2023, the silver supply and demand gap continued. The gap reached 1,591, 7393, and 4,419 tons. The main changes in demand stemmed from the expansion of industrial applications and the increase in investment demand. Industrial demand for silver increased from 15,900 tons in 2020 to 204,000 tons in 2023, with PV demand growing from 0.26 million tons in 2020 to 0.6 million tons in 2023.
The downside of the bullion ratio is mainly driven by economic recovery or the expansion of total monetary volume.
Looking back at the period of drastic changes in the gold to silver ratio in history, when the economy was slowing down and the Federal Reserve began to relax monetary policy, gold performed significantly better than silver, and the ratio of gold to silver rose sharply; during the economic recovery period after the introduction of loose monetary policy, silver performed significantly better than gold, and the ratio of gold to silver dropped sharply. Furthermore, during the Federal Reserve's two rounds of quantitative easing, total monetary expansion boosted inflation expectations, and the gold to silver ratio declined markedly.
Risk warning: Uncertain risk of the Fed cutting interest rates, risk of US inflation continuing to exceed expectations, risk of untimely commissioning of gold mining projects, risk of pressure on silver prices.