业绩符合预期，锡铜价上行带动业绩增长。2024 年一季度，国内锡锭、铜、锌均价分别为21.67 万元/吨、6.9 万元/吨、2.1 万元/吨，分别同比增长4%、增长1%、减少10%，分别环比增长3.4%、增长1.9%、减少1.4%，锡铜价上行抵消了锌价的下滑，公司毛利率11.2%，同比增长3.54pct。此外，受收到的政府补助款同比增加，公司其他收益0.36 亿元，同比增长43.86%；受商品运输费用同比减少，公司销售费用0.15 亿元，同比减少38.12%；受部分商品套期合约无效部分浮动盈利同比减少，公司公允价值变动净收益-0.05 亿元，同比减少283.53%；受华联锌铟少数股东享受损益同比增加，公司少数股东损益0.21 亿元，同比增长137.81%，最终实现归母净利润3.26 亿元，同比增长22.09%。Matters:
The company released its 2024 quarterly report. The company achieved operating income of 8.399 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 24.47%; net profit to mother of 326 million yuan, up 22.09% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 304 million yuan, up 17.49% year on year; and net cash flow from operating activities of 1,069 million yuan, up 23.62% year on year.
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The performance was in line with expectations, and rising tin and copper prices led to increased performance. In the first quarter of 2024, the average prices of tin ingots, copper and zinc in China were 21,700 yuan/ton, 69,000 yuan/ton, and 21,000 yuan/ton, respectively, increasing 4%, increasing by 1%, and decreasing by 10%, respectively. The rise in tin and copper prices offset the decline in zinc prices. The company's gross profit margin was 11.2%, up 3.54 pcts year on year. In addition, government grants received increased year-on-year, and the company's other revenue was 0.36 million yuan, up 43.86% year on year; due to the year-on-year decrease in commodity transportation expenses, the company's sales expenses were 0.15 million yuan, a decrease of 38.12% year on year; due to the invalidity of some commodity hedging contracts, the company's net profit from changes in fair value was -0.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 283.53% year on year; minority shareholders of Hualian Zinc Indium enjoyed a year-on-year increase in profit and loss of 0.21 million yuan, up 137.81% year on year, and finally achieved net profit to mother $326 million, up 22.09% year over year.
The output of the company's main products has been steadily increasing. The company seized the opportunity of rising copper and tin prices and focused on strengthening fine management and lean production. In the first quarter of 2024, the company produced 90,700 tons of non-ferrous metals, up 13% year on year and 10% month on month. Among them, the product tin was 22,400 tons, up 8% year on year, up 7% month on month; product copper was 34,700 tons, up 26% year on year, up 17% month on month; zinc ingot was 24,900 tons, down 19% year on year, down 52% month on month; 32 tons of indium ingot, up 68% year on year, down 11% month on month; and zinc alloy used for casting reduced 0.82 million tons of zinc.
The company insists on driving the quality and efficiency of the industrial chain through innovative research. In the first quarter, the company's R&D expenses were 0.69 million yuan, an increase of 151.71% over the previous year. The company's zinc-indium smelting focused on market demand and efficiency orientation, gave full play to the advantages of top blow furnaces, controlled the input ratio of low-grade materials and secondary materials, enhanced production efficiency in distribution management, and carried out technical research, process upgrading and transformation to achieve comprehensive efficiency of valuable by-products such as tin smelting zinc-cadmium slag, zinc smelting copper slag, and crude palladium copper smelting. In the first quarter, the company was selected in the “Xinhua CNESG 2023 ESG Top 100 Listed Companies in China” list and obtained A grade. The subsidiary Wenshan Zinc Indium Company's “YT” brand zinc ingots passed the Shanghai Futures Exchange delivery brand registration, and the subsidiary Hualian Zinc Indium Company was recognized as a “national high-tech enterprise”.
Investment advice: Currently, the shortage of tin ore continues. Tight tin ore is being transmitted to smelting. Domestic raw materials for smelting are tight. They are optimistic about tin prices where supply is tight and demand recovery is expected to be strong. As a leader in the global tin industry, Tin Industry Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from rising tin prices. We expect the company's net profit to be 2,085 billion yuan, 2,444 billion yuan, and 2.701 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, up 48.0%, 17.1%, and 10.7% year-on-year respectively. Considering the valuation situation of comparable companies in the same industry, the company was given a price-earnings ratio of 16 times in 2024, with a corresponding target price of 20.27 yuan, maintaining a “strong” rating.
Risk warning: (1) Domestic economic recovery fell short of expectations; (2) demand recovery for semiconductors and consumer electronics fell short of expectations; (3) the Federal Reserve raised interest rates beyond expectations.
