维持增持。公司Q 1 营收3.82亿元/+11.05%，归母净利 0.77 亿元/+57.9%，扣非0.73 亿元/+57%好于此前预期。考虑规模效应增强、AI 产品渗透率提升，上调预测2024-26 年EPS 至1.5/1.81/2.17 元(原1.45/1.73/2.08 元)增速25/21/20%；给予公司25 倍PE，上调目标价至37.5 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
The 58% increase in Q1 performance was better than previously expected, and profitability was further improved; I am optimistic that the trend of high performance growth will continue as the scale effect increases and the penetration rate of AI products increases.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's Q1 revenue was 382 million yuan/ +11.05%, net profit attributable to mother was 77 million yuan/ +57.9%, less than 73 million yuan/ +57% better than previously anticipated. Considering the increased scale effect and the increase in the penetration rate of AI products, the 2024-26 EPS growth rate was raised to 1.5/1.81/2.17 yuan (originally 1.45/1.73/2.08 yuan); the company was given 25 times PE, and the target price was raised to 37.5 yuan to maintain growth.
The gross and net margin was increased, and the cost ratio was further optimized. 1) Q1 gross profit margin 79% /+0.48pct, net profit margin 17.56% /+4.37pct, net interest rate 19% /+5.56pct after deduction; 2) Expense ratio 57.4%/-4.13pct, with sales/management/ R&D/finance expense ratios 36.5/11.2/12.4/ -2.92% respectively, year-on-year, -3.86/+0.75/-0.3/-0.68pct; 3) Net operating cash flow -49 million yuan/ -57.8% due to subsidiary companies (microfinance companies) Increased loans.
The number of members of the Made in China Network has been growing steadily, and the performance of activities during the overseas season is impressive. 1) As of the end of Q1, the number of paid members of Made in China Network was 25,018, an increase of 432 over the previous month; 2) On April 1, China Manufacturing Network Super Excursion went live. On the first day of the event, the number of visitors increased by 163%, the number of buyers increased by 183%, and the number of business opportunities increased by 41%; among them, the number of buyer apps increased by 51%, breaking the platform's single-day business opportunity growth record; 3) The “Double Line Overseas” series of offline activities will also be launched one after another. The company will participate in the exhibition and organize overseas direct mining platform conferences with suppliers to enhance stickiness and promote stickiness Increased membership conversion rate.
I am optimistic that the penetration rate of AI Michael will further increase, and the future pattern is worth looking forward to. 1) AI innovation achievements have continued to be implemented in the past 2 months. As an important achievement in the field of foreign trade, the company's AI Michael products can improve the work efficiency of foreign traders, lower the threshold for foreign trade suppliers, and enhance trading opportunities; by the end of Q1, the number of members purchased was about 4,641 (excluding trial experience package customers), and the penetration rate was further increased by about 18.55%; 2) In the future, the profitability of the platform is expected to continue to increase as AI penetration continues to increase and buyer-side AI assistants are launched; 3) We believe that the future AI iterative upgrade direction is to comprehensively improve foreign trade through comprehensive solutions The company's ability to expand overseas customers and order conversion efficiency are worth looking forward to in the long term.
Risk warning: the increase in AI product penetration rate falls short of expectations, the impact of other e-commerce platforms, etc.
