Key points of investment
The 24Q1 company's performance continued to increase. The performance was in line with market expectations. The 24Q1 company achieved revenue of 1,223 billion yuan, +37.00% year over year; realized net profit of 160 million yuan, +43.10% year-on-year, and the performance was in line with market expectations.
Looking at the breakdown, the company's e-commerce channel accounted for more than 20% of revenue; the total online sales of snack gift boxes exceeded 100 million yuan in the first quarter; the snack sales channel accounted for more than 20%; at the same time, quail egg snacks grew rapidly over the same period last year, with sales exceeding 100 million yuan in the first quarter.
Gross margin declined slightly, and net profit margin continued to rise
Gross margin declined slightly due to changes in channel structure. 2024Q1 gross margin was 32.10%, -2.47pct year on year.
The cost rate continued to decline. In 2024, the company achieved sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses of 13.00%/4.23%/1.30%/0.30%, respectively, -0.77/-0.15/-1.43/-0.04pct.
As a result, net interest rates continued to rise. The company's net interest rate in Q1 2024 was 13.06%, +0.50pct year-on-year.
Maintain the previous profit forecast and maintain the buy rating.
The company's requirements for business quality are getting higher and higher, thus driving the company to carry out comprehensive reforms and adjustments. In the process of pursuing the quality of operations, we cannot ignore that the optimization and reform of the company's supply chain is a top priority, and it is also the key for the company to maintain a high growth rate over a long period of time. In recent development, we have seen that the company has strengthened its layout in supply chain reform and channel expansion. The future is still a period of scale effects and supply chain optimization effects, and the boom can continue. We expect that in 2024-2026, the company will achieve revenue of 52.94, 67.00, and 8.255 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 28.65%, 26.56%, and 23.21%, respectively; realized net profit to mother will be 687, 8.90, and 11.16 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 35.86%, 29.56%, and 25.33%, respectively.
The company's 24-26 EPS is estimated to be 3.50/4.54/5.69 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 21.03/16.23/12.95 times, respectively.
Risk warning: Channel expansion falls short of expectations, category expansion falls short of expectations, food safety risks.