Core views:
The number of charging piles continues to resonate with the recovery of traditional business, and 24Q1 performance continued to grow at a high rate. The company released its 2024 quarterly report. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 860 million yuan, +22.2% year on year, realized net profit to mother of 120 million yuan, +73.3% year on year, and realized deduction of 120 million yuan in non-net profit, +70.7% year over year. By business, the charging pile business continued to expand rapidly, and the traditional business grew steadily. 2024Q1's charging pile business achieved revenue of 160 million yuan, +103.33% over the same period, and the traditional digital maintenance business achieved revenue of 688 million yuan, +11.61% over the same period last year. We are optimistic about the growth prospects of the company's charging pile business in 2024. We are relatively cautiously optimistic about the traditional business, and expect the traditional main business to maintain steady growth. Taking the software cloud service business as an example, software cloud service payments due within one year at the end of 2023 were 260 million yuan, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year. The company's contract debt at the end of the 2024Q1 period was 17.4% year-on-year, reaching 342 million yuan. This data shows that the company's software upgrade cloud service business is still growing steadily.
The US factory for charging piles was officially put into operation. The company continues to promote overseas production capacity. At the end of 2023, the US factory was officially put into operation. The company became one of the Chinese new energy companies that built and put into operation in the US and met the requirements of the US NEVI and BABA laws. Judging from industrial logic, the charging pile business is expected to expand significantly, driving continued improvement in performance.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Considering that the company's share transfer brought an investment income of 122 million yuan in 2024, we appropriately raised our profit forecast for 2024. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 574 million yuan, 649 million yuan, and 783 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.27 yuan/share, 1.44 yuan/share, and 1.73 yuan/share. Referring to the latest 2024 valuation of comparable companies, considering that the company is expected to achieve rapid performance growth in 2024-2025, the company can be given a reasonable valuation ratio of 30 times PE in 2024, with a reasonable value of 38.08 yuan/share to maintain a “buy” rating
Risk warning. The uncertainty of the RMB exchange rate; the uncertainty of overseas market policy; the uncertainty of expanding the new energy business; the uncertainty of the overseas economy.