2023 profit side is under pressure, 2024 will go to battle lightly
In 2023, Pioneer Intelligence achieved revenue of 16.628 billion yuan (yoy +19.35%, adjusted), net profit of 1,775 billion yuan (yoy -23.45%, adjusted), after deducting non-net profit of 1,725 billion yuan (yoy -23.57%, adjusted). Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 3.442 billion yuan (yoy -12.45%, qoq -43.57%) and net profit to mother of 549 million yuan (yoy -184.09%, qoq -148.88%). 24Q1 achieved revenue of 3.311 billion yuan (yoy +1.14%) and net profit of 565 million yuan (yoy +0.21%) to mother. We expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 2.26, 2.88, and 3.86 yuan respectively. Comparatively, the company Wind agreed to expect the average PE value to be 12 times. Considering that the company has an advantage in the overall line business, there should be a certain premium. The company should be given 13 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 29.38 yuan (previous value 36.48 yuan) to maintain a “purchase”.
The share of overseas orders continues to rise, and profitability is expected to continue to increase. The company's overall order trend is maintained in 2023. Among them, overseas orders performed well, and the share was further increased to more than 30%; in the non-lithium battery business, orders for the photovoltaic business grew rapidly. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 35.60% for the whole year, -2.15 pct year on year. Due to the relatively low gross profit of overseas business in the second half of the year, it was mainly a centralized revenue recognition for overseas projects affected by the epidemic in the second half of the year. In terms of expenses, the company's annual expense ratio was 18.59%, +1.28pct year on year, with sales expenses ratio of 2.71%, -0.24pct year on year, management expense ratio 6.04%, +0.88pct year on year, R&D expenses rate of 10.08%, +0.40pct year on year, financial expenses ratio -0.24%, and +0.23pct year on year. The increase in the management expense ratio is mainly due to the increase in per capita wages and equity incentives, the company's implementation of international development strategies, and the increase in overseas travel expenses of various departments.
24Q1 gross margin is under slight pressure, and the overall cost ratio has been optimized
In the first quarter of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 36.78%, -4.68pct year-on-year. The overall cost ratio was 20.09%, -1.31pct year on year, including sales expense ratio 0.47%, year-on-year -1.26pct, management expense ratio 9.25%, +2.60pct year on year, R&D expense ratio 11.74%, year-on-year -1.25pct, financial expense ratio -1.38%, year-on-year -1.39pct. The decline in the sales expense ratio and the increase in the management expense ratio were mainly due to the adjustment of the company's organizational attributes in '24, the adjustment of some office expenses and travel expenses incurred overseas from sales expenses to the reporting of administrative expenses, and the increase in wages and salaries compared to the previous year.
Received an order for 20 GWh of US lithium battery equipment, and the whole line service helps overseas demand. According to the pilot website, on March 18, '24, the company won an order for the American battery manufacturer ABF20GWh lithium battery smart production line. The first phase of the production line is expected to be put into operation in '25. Based on this partnership, the partner company achieved exclusive equipment supply for the first production line of the ABF Gigafactory network project. This is not only the first LFP gigafactory network in the US, but also represents that the company still has a high level of competitiveness and recognition under high tariff barriers, which helps to continue to develop American customers. As the company's full-line service advantages are highlighted and overseas business continues to be developed, compounded by the layout of 15 global subsidiaries and the localization of the supply chain, the company is expected to obtain more overseas orders.
Risk warning: International macroeconomic and international trade policy risks; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; risk of increased industry competition; risk of customer expansion or overseas demand falling short of expectations; risk of equipment acceptance slowing down.