Brief performance review
Revenue & profit side - 23 results were in line with expectations, and Q1 was affected by factors such as high base and prosperity. The company released its 23 annual report and 24 quarterly report on April 25, '24.
1) Revenue side: 23FY achieved revenue of 828 million yuan, yoy +37.71%; 23Q4 achieved 362 million yuan, yoy +44.16%. 24Q1 reached 120 million yuan, yoy +3.84%. 2) Profit side: 23FY achieved net profit of 61 million yuan, yoy +992.84%; 23Q4 achieved 57 million yuan, yoy +126.01%. 24Q1 achieved -0.26 billion yuan, YOY -44.94%. Gross margin & net margin side: 23FY's comprehensive gross margin is 93.67%, yoy-4.78pcts, net return to mother margin is 7.42%, yoy+6.37pcts.
Structural side - 3D revenue volume continues to rise, and overseas revenue is growing rapidly. By product classification:
Standard general software still accounts for the majority of overall revenue, achieving revenue of 699 million yuan, yoy +22.98%, accounting for 84.92%, gross profit margin of 99.37%, and yoy-0.35pct.
Among them, 2D products achieved revenue of 472 million yuan; 3D products achieved revenue of 188 million yuan; yoy +16.28% CAE achieved revenue of 0.07 billion yuan, yoy +209.67%, accounting for 1.02%; and Bochao achieved revenue of 0.3 million yuan, accounting for 4.67%. The share of customized software development, technical service revenue, and outsourced software and hardware increased slightly. By region: Domestic revenue of 666 million yuan, of which the commercial market achieved revenue of 501 million yuan (strong business growth for small and medium-sized customers; KA business was weaker than the average growth rate but polished to form a number of typical solutions); the education market achieved revenue of 166 million yuan (poor purchasing intentions from vocational education customers and cyclical adjustments in industry policies). Overseas revenue increased rapidly, achieving revenue of 157 million yuan, yoy +71.14% (the results of the global channel distribution network system are beginning to show, and the degree of brand internationalization is deepening).
Cost-side - scale effects drive rates steadily downward. 23FY R&D expense ratio 47.09%, yoy-0.92pct; sales expense ratio 52.54%, yoy-4.73pcts; management expense ratio 11.42%, yoy+1.01pcts (impact of the merger of Bochao, etc.)
Bottom valuation scenario, recommended at current price. We believe that the company has an autonomous and controllable 3D geometric modeling core and is in a leading position in the industry. Relevant benchmark customers are progressing smoothly and maintaining the leading position of CAD in the domestic market. Currently, the company is located at 10XPS, which is at the bottom of the valuation since listing. The current price is recommended!
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 24-26 to 10.11/12.18/1,440 million yuan; adjusted net profit to mother for 24-26 to 1.04 billion yuan. The current price of the company's stock is 10.0/8.3/7.0 times the PS valuation, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
There is a risk that profitability will be squeezed in stages due to increased market competition; the risk that 3D product development falls short of expectations; the risk that customer feedback on the Goku platform falls short of expectations.