非输液药品:中间体/原料药或受益价格稳健+新品增量,仿制药看好持续修复23 年抗生素中间体/原料药实现收入48.43 亿元（+23.8% yoy），主因23 年内硫红/青霉素中间体量价齐升。展望全年，我们看好该板块表现持续亮眼，考虑：1）硫红与6-APA 仍处供需平衡中，价格有望维稳；2）头孢类中间体价格或持续修复；3）合成生物新品或贡献增量收入。此外，23 年非输液制剂受集采等影响收入同比下滑7%，但我们估测1Q24 该板块受益恩格列净放量理想+草艾销售修复，低基数下利润增速或超30%yoy，为全年业务稳健增长奠定良好基础。1Q continues the strong trend of the annual report. All sectors are attacking at full speed, with a target price of 43.44 yuan to maintain “buying”
The company achieved net profit of 214.5/2.46 billion yuan (+12.7/ 44.0% yoy) from restated revenue/mother in '23, mainly due to the fact that the three major sectors of infusion, raw materials/intermediates, and innovative pharmaceuticals went hand in hand. The company's 1Q24 revenue/net profit to mother was 62.2/1.03 billion yuan (10.3/ 26.0% yoy), showing steady growth under a high base, mainly due to: 1) continued strong demand for 1Q24 large infusions; 2) APIs and intermediates benefited from a recovery in the price of cephalosporin intermediates; 3) MSD's milestone payment confirmation for SKB264. Looking ahead to 24 years, considering that the demand side for large infusions may continue to be strong, and the restoration of some non-infusion varieties combined with SKB264's overseas clinical promotion and domestic listing progress, we are optimistic that the company's net profit will increase by more than 15% year on year. We expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 1.81/2.08/2.56 yuan, and give the company 24 times PE in 24 years (the same as its A-share comparable company Wind's consistent forecast average), with a target price of 43.44 yuan to maintain the “purchase.”
Large infusion sector: Hospital-side demand continues to be strong. We are optimistic that 24 years will benefit from structural optimization+production capacity release. The large infusion sector will achieve revenue of 10.1 billion yuan (+7% yoy) in 23 years, mainly due to the dissipation of external environmental factors during the year. Backyard demand is strong (+10.6% year-on-year sales). Looking ahead to the whole year, we are optimistic about the steady increase in revenue in the large infusion sector, and the profit growth rate is faster (we estimate that 1Q24 profit growth rate will exceed 20%): 1) demand for hospital fever clinics is still strong since the beginning of the year; 2) the release of new production capacity for powder/liquid double chamber bags contributed to the increase; 3) continuous optimization of the product structure (the proportion of the company's sealed infusion volume increased by 4.25 percentage points in 23); 4) parenteral nutrition three-chamber bag products benefited from China's negotiations to maintain continuous release volume (6.13 million bags sold in 23 years).
Non-infusion drugs: Intermediates/APIs or benefiting from steady price increases + new product growth. Generic drugs are optimistic that continuous restoration of antibiotic intermediates/APIs over 23 years will achieve revenue of 4.843 billion yuan (+23.8% yoy), mainly due to a sharp rise in the volume and price of sulfur/penicillin intermediates within 23 years. Looking ahead to the whole year, we are optimistic that this sector will continue to perform well. Consider: 1) Sulphur Red and 6-APA are still in balance between supply and demand, and prices are expected to stabilize; 2) the price of cephalosporin intermediates may continue to recover; 3) New synthetic biological products may contribute to incremental revenue. In addition, revenue from non-infusion formulations fell 7% year over year due to collection, etc., but we estimate that in 1Q24, the sector benefited from Engli's ideal net volume+ sales restoration, and profit growth rate of over 30% yoy under a low base, laying a good foundation for steady business growth throughout the year.
1Q benefited from MSD's milestone payment confirmation. Clinical Catalysis Enrichment Company confirmed revenue of 1.55 billion yuan (+106% yoy) during the year. We estimate that 1Q24 revenue in this sector was still growing steadily against the backdrop of a high base in the same period in '23, mainly due to confirmed MSD's clinical milestone payments for SKB264 totaling $75 million during the 1Q24 period. Looking ahead to the whole year, we are optimistic about the following rich sector catalysis: 1) SKB264 TNBC (3L) phase III and 1L combined A167 EGFR wild NSCLC phase II clinical data will be read in ASCO data; 2) SKB264 overseas clinical or accelerated launch (MSD has carried out 7 clinical studies since 4Q23); 3) SKB264/A166 may begin commercialization.
Risk warning: New drug development/BD related risks, innovative drug commercialization risks, industry policy risks, price fluctuation risks of APIs and intermediates.
