Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024 Q1 performance exceeded expectations, the export business contributed more revenue growth, the profitability of various sectors continued to improve, and there is strong certainty that the annual performance growth target has been achieved.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Raise profit forecasts and maintain the “gain” rating. The company's 24Q1 performance exceeded expectations, and the company's overseas revenue is expected to grow better in 2024, so the 24-26 forecast was raised. The estimated net profit for 24-26 is 35.67/41.76/4.819 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS is 2.57/3.01/3.47 yuan (originally 2.37/2.81/3.23 yuan), +26%/17%/15% year-on-year.
In 2024, the current valuation level of comparable company industries is generally 13-15X. The company's performance growth expectations are stronger than those of its peers. 17xPE was given, and the target price was raised to 43.69 yuan.
The results exceeded expectations. The company achieved revenue of 23.486 billion yuan in 2024Q1, +20.87% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 981 million yuan, +59.48% year-on-year.
Exports are booming, and the ice washing business is booming. The 24Q1 revenue side growth relatively exceeded expectations, and the export side grew significantly under the trend of overseas channel replenishment. We expect export business growth to be better than domestic sales. Increased global share. The company's 23Q1 cold sector has a relatively low revenue base due to overseas inventory removal, and there is a marked increase in elasticity during the current inventory replenishment phase. We estimate that the refrigerator export business increased by more than 60%, domestic sales by about 20%, and overall refrigeration business revenue +35-40% year-on-year in 24Q1.
Profits of various business segments improved steadily. The gross margin of the 2024Q1 company improved by 0.5 pcts. We expect the main results from: 1) the increase in the scale of the air conditioning and refrigeration business, and the improvement in capacity utilization at overseas bases such as the Monterey plant at the export end; 2) white electronics products as a whole follow the trend of structural upgrading, and the average price continues to rise year-on-year, with impressive growth in high-end packages. On the other hand, the rising costs and prices of 24Q1 copper and aluminum, refrigerants, and foam materials are also putting some pressure on the manufacturing side.
Risk warning: Raw material prices fluctuate, cost pressure remains unabated, and demand weakens in the post-cycle due to declining real estate completion