Mango Excellent Media Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300413) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥3.3b revenue coming in 9.1% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.25 missed the mark badly, arriving some 29% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Mango Excellent Media's 20 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥15.8b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 42% to CN¥1.07 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥16.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.29 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥30.17 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Mango Excellent Media analyst has a price target of CN¥39.27 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥20.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Mango Excellent Media's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.6% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.3% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 15% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Mango Excellent Media is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥30.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mango Excellent Media analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Mango Excellent Media (2 can't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.