Is Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) (SHSE:601609) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) (SHSE:601609) Using Too Much Debt?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601609) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李露对此毫不掩饰，他说：“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动，而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此，很明显，当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时，你需要考虑债务，因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。重要的是，宁波金田铜业（集团）有限公司（上海证券交易所股票代码：601609）确实有债务。但是，股东是否应该担心其债务的使用？
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时危险？
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
债务可以为企业提供帮助，直到企业难以用新的资本或自由现金流还清债务。归根结底，如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务，股东可能会一无所获地离开。但是，更常见（但仍然令人痛苦）的情况是，它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股本资本，从而永久稀释股东。当然，债务可以成为企业的重要工具，尤其是资本密集型企业。当我们研究债务水平时，我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务水平。
How Much Debt Does Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Carry?
宁波金田铜业（集团）有多少债务？
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2023 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) had debt of CN¥9.50b, up from CN¥6.47b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥724.7m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥8.77b.
您可以点击下图查看更多详情，该图片显示，截至2023年12月，宁波金田铜业（集团）的债务为950亿元人民币，高于一年内的64.7亿元人民币。但是，由于其现金储备为7.247亿元人民币，其净负债较少，约为877亿元人民币。
How Strong Is Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group)'s Balance Sheet?
宁波金田铜业（集团）的资产负债表有多强？
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) had liabilities of CN¥7.25b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥6.10b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥724.7m in cash and CN¥7.38b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥5.24b.
放大最新的资产负债表数据，我们可以看到，宁波金田铜业（集团）在12个月内到期的负债为72.5亿元人民币，之后到期的负债为61.0亿元人民币。与此相抵消的是，它有7.247亿元的现金和73.8亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此，其负债超过其现金和（短期）应收账款总额52.4亿元人民币。
Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) has a market capitalization of CN¥9.52b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
宁波金田铜业（集团）的市值为95.2亿元人民币，因此，如果需要，它很可能会筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。但是，仍然值得仔细研究其偿还债务的能力。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益（EBITDA），第二个是其利息和税前收益（EBIT）覆盖其利息支出（或简称利息保障）的多少倍。这种方法的优势在于，我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量（包括净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润），也考虑了与该债务相关的实际利息支出（及其利息覆盖率）。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.4, it's fair to say Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 2.5 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Looking on the bright side, Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) boosted its EBIT by a silky 43% in the last year. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
宁波金田铜业（集团）的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率为5.4，可以公平地说，确实有大量债务。但好消息是，它拥有相当令人欣慰的2.5倍的利息保障，这表明它可以负责任地履行其义务。从好的方面来看，宁波金田铜业（集团）去年将其息税前利润增长了43％。就像母亲对新生儿的深情拥抱一样，这种成长可以增强韧性，使公司在管理债务方面处于更有利的地位。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终，该业务未来的盈利能力将决定宁波金田铜业（集团）能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此，如果您专注于未来，可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最后，公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务，不能用会计利润偿还债务。因此，我们显然需要研究息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年中，宁波金田铜业（集团）的自由现金流总额为负数。尽管这可能是增长支出的结果，但它确实使债务风险大大增加。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group)'s net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group)'s debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) you should be aware of, and 2 of them don't sit too well with us.
从表面上看，宁波金田铜业（集团）净负债占息税折旧摊销前利润的比例让我们对该股持初步看法，其将息税前利润转换为自由现金流并不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空荡荡的餐厅更具吸引力。但好的一面是，其息税前利润增长率是一个好兆头，也使我们更加乐观。综合考虑上述所有因素后，在我们看来，宁波金田铜业（集团）的债务使其有点风险。有些人喜欢这种风险，但我们注意到了潜在的陷阱，因此我们可能更希望它承担较少的债务。毫无疑问，我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是，并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中，远非如此。一个很好的例子：我们发现了你应该注意的宁波金田铜业（集团）的3个警告标志，其中两个信号对我们不太满意。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然，如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者，那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。
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