Last week, you might have seen that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited (SHSE:601928) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.9% to CN¥10.14 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥14b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 21%, coming in at CN¥1.16 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media from four analysts is for revenues of CN¥14.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 5.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 38% to CN¥0.71 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.78 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 5.3% to CN¥12.30, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media at CN¥13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥11.90. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.