24K99 News On Thursday (April 25), today's trading of the two precious metals fluctuated greatly. After the US released a GDP report showing mixed components and surprising the market, gold and silver transactions continued to fluctuate. Gold and silver bulls are still struggling to end the current downward price correction. Gold finally rose to $4.10 per ounce in June to $2342.10 per ounce. In May, silver finally fell by $0.036 per ounce to $27.31 per ounce. #黄金技术分析 #

According to US data for the same day, preliminary GDP growth for the first quarter was 1.6% on an annual basis, far lower than the market forecast of 2.4%, compared with the 3.4% increase in the fourth quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation index rose 3.7 percent over the same period and is expected to rise 3.4 percent. Some analysts and economists believe that today's GDP data shows “stagflation,” that is, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in inflation. Others believe that the “soft landing” that the US economy has been discussing for the past year has begun. Slowing economic growth is good for precious metals, but higher inflation data is bad. The GDP data raised the yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond to a five-year high of 4.71%. Although the US economy slowed in the first quarter, the still high inflation rate may prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in the short term. More US PCE inflation data will be released on Friday morning and will be closely watched.

Key external markets for the day showed a slight decline in the US dollar index. WTI crude oil futures for June closed up $0.76 per barrel, or 0.92%, to $83.57 per barrel.

Technically speaking, the June gold futures bulls had a solid short-term technical advantage. They maintained a nine-week upward trend on the daily chart. The bulls' next upward price target is to generate solid resistance to close above $2400.00 per ounce. The next short-term downside price target for the bears is to push the futures price below solid technical support of $2250.00/oz. The first resistance level saw today's high of $2357.60 per ounce, followed by $2370.00 per ounce. The first support level saw today's low of $2316.40 per ounce, followed by this week's low of $2304.60 per ounce.

As of press release, spot gold is currently reported at 2333.01, an increase of 0.74%.

(Spot gold chart, source: FX168)

The gold market's recent record high of $2,400 per ounce may represent the peak of prices; however, investors should not expect to see too much of a decline from current levels, as the World Bank expects precious metals prices to rise 8% this year.

In its 2024 commodity market outlook, the World Bank said it expects the average price of gold to be around 2,100 US dollars/ounce. This bullish outlook comes after the price of gold rose 4% in the first quarter of this year and has continued to soar since then.

The international financial institution added that higher gold prices cannot be ruled out this year either.

“Increased geopolitical uncertainty is likely to push the price of gold higher than the benchmark level due to the ongoing escalation of conflict and broader geopolitical tension,” analysts said in the report. “Against the backdrop of high geopolitical and policy uncertainty, safe-haven demand for gold is expected to increase further in 2024, in part due to the large number of upcoming elections around the world.”

Although the gold market experienced some solid selling pressure after breaking through the record high of $2,400 per ounce, compared with the breakthrough gains of the past two months, its consolidation was quite shallow. The latest trading price for gold futures in June was $2346.60 per ounce, up 0.34%.

The World Bank notes that geopolitical safe-haven needs will continue to help the gold market break away from the strong inverse correlation with rising bond yields. In particular, since the beginning of this year, US bond yields have risen sharply as the market delayed the Federal Reserve's easing cycle.

Rising inflationary pressure forced the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy longer than expected. The World Bank notes that commodity price inflation is likely to rise this year, creating a challenging environment for all central banks.

“Overall, judging from the driving force of the gradual decline in commodity prices, the impetus for a substantial slowdown has disappeared. Despite weak global GDP growth, high prices persist compared to pre-pandemic levels, which suggests several forces are at work: geopolitical tensions are driving up prices, and investments associated with the clean energy transition have increased demand for metals.” World Bank analysts said. According to the report, the risk of commodity prices is biased upward.

“The conflict-driven rise in commodity prices could trigger stubborn increases in global inflation and further delay global monetary easing,” analysts said. “Food insecurity worsened sharply last year, reflecting armed conflict and rising food prices, and the situation is likely to worsen further.”

Some analysts have indicated that the environment described by the World Bank will be favorable to the gold market. Although the central bank may have to postpone interest rate cuts this year, interest rates are not expected to rise. If inflation starts to rise, this will drive real yields down and create a positive environment for gold.

Meanwhile, any rise in geopolitical uncertainty will further drive safe-haven demand for gold.

Although most investors ignored gold when it hit a record high, the World Bank notes that gold is still supported by growing central bank demand.

Although the World Bank expects its commodity price index to fall 3% this year and 4% next year, prices are expected to remain above historical averages.

“Although commodity prices are expected to decline slightly, they are expected to remain around 38% above the 2015-2019 average,” the analyst said.

In addition to being bullish on gold, the World Bank also expects the price of silver to rise this year; however, the price of this silver is still expected to be lower than its metal sister.

The World Bank expects the average price of silver to be around 25 US dollars/ounce this year, an increase of 7% over last year. Analysts said that the biggest risk facing silver remains the health of the global economy.

“Demand for silver is expected to grow moderately in 2024, driven by its dual appeal as a financial asset and an industrial commodity. “Industrial demand accounts for nearly half of global bank consumption and continues to be supported by vehicle electrification and the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure,” analysts said. “Lower than expected industrial activity in major economies may dampen demand for silver and platinum.” The World Bank predicts that silver will surpass gold in 2025, and the price will rise by about 4% next year. Gold prices are expected to remain relatively stable in 2025.