Global macroscopic
Before the Thursday market, the US GDP for the first quarter fell short of expectations, and the three major US stocks dived ahead of the market
The initial value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate for the first quarter was 1.6%, the forecast value was 2.4%, and the previous value was 3.4%.
Xiaomao is bullish on the S&P 500 Index
On Wednesday local time, J.P. Morgan Chase sent a clear buying signal for the US stock market because its US tactical position monitoring indicators showed that clients' risk exposure to US stocks had reached a level reflecting the attractive structure of the S&P 500 index. The bank's new report indicates that in the past four weeks, the S&P 500 index, which experienced similar position changes, rose by an average of about 3% over the next 20 days, while the average increase over all time periods was about 1%.
Another “driving force behind the sharp drop” in US stocks: retail investors watched indifferently
According to data from Vanda Research, a research agency that tracks retail trading flows in the US, retail investors' purchasing activity stagnated during the tax season, which exacerbated the stock market sell-off in early April. The Vanda team was surprised by the drop in retail demand; they had anticipated only a slight drop in demand. They listed sluggish retail buying activity as one of the two main catalysts for the weakening of US stocks this month. The other catalyst was the sell-off of systemic funds such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs).
Oak Capital Max comments on AI: It's a lot like a bubble, and it's impossible to determine a “stock market winner”!
Howard Max, co-founder of Oak Capital, said a few days ago that AI may eventually change the world, but this alone cannot determine the success of related assets. In an interview, he said, “Every bubble starts with a common belief. Everyone believes in AI, and they charge a high price for the beneficiaries of AI. It turned out to be a bit excessive.” When it comes to artificial intelligence, Max acknowledged the technology's transformative potential, but he himself can't say whether the “AI beneficiaries” are underestimated or overrated.
Mizuho: The dollar rush boom may be coming
Mizuho Kokusai said that the swap market is issuing a warning that US dollar liquidity may be sold on a large scale. The last time this happened was at the beginning of the epidemic. Andra Belcea, head of cross-currency swap trading at Mizuho, mentioned the cross-currency base — a measure of the additional costs non-US banks face when purchasing dollars overseas rather than through US branches. The index is calculated from the cost of cash flow from one currency to another. It shows that the dollar cost is currently close to the low point after the pandemic, after major central banks took urgent measures to inject liquidity into the market.
Hot news
Star Technology's stock generally declined before the market
Meta plummeted by nearly 16% before the market, and Microsoft and Google, which reported earnings after the market, may become “the hope of the whole village”
though$Meta Platforms (META.US)$The Q1 earnings report exceeded market expectations, and the growth rate of its core advertising business also increased further, but the revenue outlook for the second quarter fell short of expectations. At the same time, it is planned to drastically increase AI spending, causing its stock price to plummet before the market. The sharp decline in Meta raised questions about the profitability of AI among investors, as well as concerns about the technology stock sector as a whole. Among them,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$und$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$/$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Stock prices weakened before the market, and US stocks will release earnings after the market on Thursday. As of press time, Meta had plummeted by nearly 16% in the premarket.
Bank of America raised Tesla's rating: it can also increase 35%!
in$Tesla (TSLA.US)$After announcing its dismal first-quarter results report, Bank of America said that a positive catalyst has begun to form. Bank of America analyst John Murphy upgraded Tesla's stock rating from “neutral” to “buy” and reiterated its target price of $220, which means Tesla's stock price is likely to rise more than 35% from current levels.
UK regulators open antitrust review of Microsoft and Amazon's AI investment activities
Given the huge influence of global tech giants on the AI sector, the UK's competition regulator recently$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$und$Amazon (AMZN.US)$A round of antitrust reviews has begun. The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it is seeking comments from third parties on the artificial intelligence partnership between Microsoft and Mistral AI, as well as the partnership between Amazon and Anthropic.
IBM fell more than 9% before the market, and Q1 revenue fell short of expectations
$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$Q1 revenue increased 1.5% year over year to US$14.46 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of US$14.54 billion; adjusted EPS was US$1.68, higher than analysts' expectations of US$1.60. IBM's most important revenue-generating division, the Software Division's Q1 revenue increased 5.5% year over year to US$5.9 billion, below analysts' expectations of US$5.96 billion. As of press time, IBM was down more than 9% in the premarket.
TSMC's “A16” chip process will be launched in 2026! The “big war” with Intel is about to begin
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$On Wednesday, it said that a new chip manufacturing technology called “A16” the company is developing will be put into operation in the second half of 2026. At that time, TSMC will have long-term rivals$Intel (INTC.US)$Start a “big duel” with the most advanced chips. AI chip companies may become the first adopters of this technology rather than smartphone makers, TSMC executives said. However, AI chip companies need to optimize their designs to take full advantage of TSMC's manufacturing process.
Moderna teams up with OpenAI to automate business processes
On Wednesday local time, US pharmaceutical companies$Moderna (MRNA.US)$A partnership with OpenAI was announced. Modena wants to automate almost all business processes by introducing AI technology. Modena said that further integration of AI into more processes will help the company plan to launch 15 new products over the next five years.
Focus on China Securities
The pre-market trend of popular Chinese securities stocks is divergent
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
20:30 Preliminary quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter/ Preliminary quarterly rate of actual US personal consumption expenditure in the first quarter
22:00 Monthly rate of existing home contract sales index in the US in March
22:30 US EIA gas inventory for the week of April 19 (100 million cubic feet)
editor/tolk