主要原因是经济增速下行背景下，公司制造业客户原辅材料需求动能不足、库存头寸消减、提货周期拉长，盈利能力承压，在产业周期低谷，公司与制造业客户共同分担市场下行压力。公司2023 年计提资产减值损失、信用减值损失合计约14.6 亿元，较2022 年同期（8.2 亿元）大幅增加。Event: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 459 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% (adjusted); realized net profit of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.3% (after adjustment); realized net profit deducted from non-mother was 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 81% (after adjustment). The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan/share (tax included), with a cash dividend rate of about 50%.
Commodity distribution business revenue declined. The company's commodity sales volume in '23 was about 230 million tons, up 13.7% year on year. Among them, the volume of metal minerals, agricultural products, energy chemicals and new energy products was about 130 million tons, 0.2 billion tons, 73 million tons, and 370,000 tons respectively, up 12.5%, 15.3%, and 71.1% year on year; metal minerals, agricultural products, energy chemicals and new energy products achieved operating revenue of 271.5 billion yuan, 60.7 billion yuan, 86.8 billion yuan and 19.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.2% and +16.7 billion yuan, respectively. %, -5.5%, and -23.2% are mainly due to insufficient effective market demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and declining commodity price fluctuations. Taken together, the company's commodity distribution business achieved revenue of about 439.2 billion yuan in '23, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%. The company's revenue from commodity logistics services in '23 was about 7.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. Among them, integrated logistics services, agricultural product logistics services, and railway logistics services achieved revenue of 5.54 billion yuan, 290 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.4%, -6.9%, and +28.1%, respectively.
The market in the bulk supply chain industry fluctuated, and the company's ROE level declined year-on-year. The company's overall gross margin in 2023 was about 1.92% (the current gross margin changed from positive to negative in the agricultural products business period), a year-on-year decrease of 0.21pct; the net sales margin was about 0.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.20pct; the weighted average ROE was 9.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.77pct.
The main reason is that in the context of declining economic growth, the company's manufacturing customers have insufficient demand momentum for raw and auxiliary materials, reduced inventory positions, lengthened delivery cycles, and pressure on profitability. At a low point in the industrial cycle, the company and manufacturing customers are sharing the downward pressure on the market. The company accrued asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses in 2023 totaling about 1.46 billion yuan, a significant increase over the same period in 2022 ($82 billion).
The shipbuilding business developed steadily, and both the volume of orders received and the gross profit from receiving orders reached new highs. The company's shipbuilding business achieved revenue of 4.74 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 42.6% over the previous year, and achieved gross profit of 1.07 billion yuan, an increase of 258% over the previous year. The company continuously optimizes its self-designed 63,500 DWT (Jixiang) series ship models. The brand effect is gradually showing, the number of orders received has increased, and the cost leadership has been achieved through improved process methods. By optimizing the production process, the construction cycle has been shortened, and the annual delivery of 23 ships has been achieved. The operating quality and efficiency have improved dramatically over the same period last year. The company received 37 new orders in '23, and the total number of new orders exceeded 8.2 billion yuan. As of the end of 2023, 64 orders were in progress.
Investment advice: Market fluctuations in the bulk supply chain industry may continue, putting pressure on the company's short-term profits; the company plans to increase dividends (no less than 10% of net profit returned to mother for the first three quarters of '24) after the disclosure of the report for the 3rd quarter of '24.
Due to the negative impact of the declining economic growth rate on the company, we lowered the 24-25 net profit forecast of 33%/27% to the mother's net profit forecast of 2.12 billion yuan and 2.90 billion yuan respectively, adding 3.49 billion yuan to the 2026 net profit forecast. The company is a leading domestic supply chain enterprise, directly affected by economic cycle fluctuations, and maintained the company's “gain” rating based on current stock prices reflecting pessimistic expectations.
Risk warning: Risk of commodity price fluctuations, leading to customer default; operating risks, such as partner default, loss of goods, etc.; financial risks, such as increased capital costs due to declining ratings, etc.
