China's assets are on the rise! Foreigners continue to sing a lot

The benefits are pouring in, and the Hong Kong stock market is booming! Has Tencent outperformed the top seven US stocks in terms of gains during the year?

Futu News · Apr 26 09:44

在政策利好释放、南下资金大幅流入、企业业绩改善的多重助推下，港股近期强势反弹，点燃了市场热情。恒指创下近四个月新高，海内外机构“涨声一片”。

其中，“股王”腾讯带头冲锋。由于大幅加码回购，市场对其游戏和广告收入预期渐转乐观，腾讯爆升三日，推动年内股价累升超17%。

彭博指出，腾讯今年涨幅已经超出由其编制的“美股七雄总回报指数”同期不足15%的表现。以美股市场追踪七巨头的ETF$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$为例，该ETF年内累升约13%，涨幅亦落后于腾讯。

政策利好释放，千亿资金南下！港股利好纷至沓来

政策层面，上周五证监会发布5项对港合作措施，包括放宽ETF产品范围、纳入REITs、支持人民币交易柜台、优化基金互认以及支持内地行业龙头企业赴港上市。5大利好精准针对港股市场流动性不足、融资吸引力下降等问题，成为本轮港股市场上涨的有力支撑。

资金层面，南向资金持续加仓港股，市场乐观情绪高涨。截至周四，内地投资者已连续19个交易日增持港股，创历史最长连增纪录，今年迄今为止，除11个交易日外，内地投资者在所有交易日中都增持了港股，年内累计净买入金额超过2100亿港元。

最新一季报显示，港股已成为基金经理主要加仓对象。其中，明星基金经理张坤管理的“A股基金”中的股票市值，高达半数为港股股票市值，而多位明星基金经理管理的“沪港深基金”更是出现“含港量”超50%甚至60%的现象。

另外，越来越多的QDII基金开始将美股仓位撤回港股，这与去年一季度QDII减配港股增仓美股的操作完全相反。以嘉实全球互联网基金QDII为例，Q1报告显示基金经理王鑫晨将美股仓位显著下调，减仓美股的同时大力加仓港股，最新港股仓位已跃升到34%。

有机构指出，今年以来中国经济的整体表现稳定，尤其是年初以来的PMI和贸易数据总体好于预期，为投资者提供了信心支撑。另外，当前港股处于估值洼地，很多具备全球竞争力的公司很多只有10倍的静态市盈率，明显低估，酝酿着巨大的潜在回报。

“股王”腾讯带头冲锋，彭博高呼跑赢“七雄”！

本轮港股反弹中，科网股带头大涨。其中，$美团-W (03690.HK)$、$快手-W (01024.HK)$三日累涨超19%，龙头股$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$再现“股王”气派，股价三日爆升，一度逼近350港元关口。

近日，腾讯正式官宣游戏迷等待多年的《地下城与勇士：起源》（DNF手游），将于5月21日正式上线。作为用户期待已久的头部IP产品，“DNF手游”上线后有望为腾讯带来可观流水与业绩增量。摩根士丹利分析师指出，预计今年一季度是腾讯本土游戏业务的低谷，二季度将推出的DnF手游将是转折性的催化剂。

另外，公司此前宣布的千亿港元股票回购计划被视为重要利好，市场普遍认为，这将有效抵消股东减持所带来的资金面压力，并且对股价产生正面影响。

彭博指出，腾讯年初至今累计升幅约17%，已经超出由其编制的美股七雄总回报指数（Magnificent Seven Total Return Index）同期不到15%的股价表现。

而从市盈率看，腾讯最新远期市盈率约16.5倍，明显低于近5年平均的23倍至28倍，目前仍有很大的上行空间。对比美股七雄来看，市盈率预期值最低的谷歌也有23.6倍。

腾讯控股即将在5月14日发布2024年第一季度的财务报告。对此部分机构指出，腾讯在2024年第一季度的游戏和视频号业务均展现出了积极的增长趋势，特别是游戏业务，环比增幅可能达到17%，全年增速有望回暖。

海内外机构齐唱多，外资态度大转变

政策利好释放后，国内机构一致认为，新规有助畅通互联互通机制，为香港资本市场引入资金活水、提升流动性。国泰君安研报称，最新措施将继续推动内地资金流入香港，增强对市场的影响力，有利于价格稳定；过去几年港股互联网的政策调整和估值调整都已经充分，股价正在进入击球区，可以用更长期的眼光去审视中国互联网公司的机会。

与此同时，外资机构对中国资产的展望也在发生重大转变。国际大行瑞银将A股、港股的评级均上调至“增配”，将中资股评级上调至“超配”。该行全球新兴市场股票首席策略师Sunil Tirumalai表示，在MSCI中国指数的成份股中，消费和互联网行业比重居高，随着消费出现初步回暖迹象，业绩料有更佳表现。

与此同时，以Kinger Lau为首的高盛分析师们也看好A股市场的表现。该行认为，中国重塑资本市场的改革化努力，将显著提振股票市场的整体估值，A股市场整体估值在最乐观的情况下可能将上升约40%。短期内A股市场的风险偏好可能会增强，交易环境也将更加有利。

市场分析人士认为，瑞银、高盛等外资机构罕见上调中国资产评级，传递出对于A股和港股市场基本面、宏观经济环境、企业盈利前景及政策动向等方面的积极判断，或凸显了中国市场开始逐步好转的初步乐观情绪。

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Thanks to the release of favorable policies, large inflows of capital from the south, and improvements in corporate performance, Hong Kong stocks have recently rebounded strongly, igniting market enthusiasm. The Hang Seng Index hit a new high in nearly four months, and institutions at home and abroad are “raising their voices.”

Among them, “stock king” Tencent took the lead in charging. Due to the drastic increase in buybacks, the market's expectations for game and advertising revenue gradually became optimistic. Tencent exploded for three days, driving the stock price to rise by more than 17% during the year.

Bloomberg pointed out that Tencent's increase this year has surpassed the performance of the “Seven Big US Stock Total Return Index” compiled by it of less than 15% over the same period. Use the US stock market to track the Big Seven ETFs$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$For example, the ETF increased by about 13% during the year, and the increase also lagged behind Tencent.

Favorable policies were released, and 100 billion dollars of capital went south! Good profits for Hong Kong stocks are pouring in

At the policy level, the Securities Regulatory Commission announced 5 cooperation measures with Hong Kong last Friday, including easing the scope of ETF products, incorporating REITs, supporting RMB trading counters, optimizing mutual recognition of funds, and supporting leading companies in the mainland industry to go public in Hong Kong. The five major benefits accurately address issues such as insufficient liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and declining attractiveness of financing, and have become strong support for the current round of Hong Kong stock market gains.

At the capital level, Southbound Capital continues to increase its positions in Hong Kong stocks, and market optimism is high. As of Thursday, mainland investors have increased their holdings of Hong Kong stocks for 19 consecutive trading days, the longest continuous increase in history. So far this year, with the exception of 11 trading days, mainland investors have increased their holdings of Hong Kong stocks on all trading days, with a cumulative net purchase amount of over HK$210 billion during the year.

According to the latest quarterly report, Hong Kong stocks have become the main target for fund managers to increase their positions. Among them, up to half of the “A-share fund” managed by star fund manager Zhang Kun is the market value of Hong Kong stocks, while the “Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund” managed by many star fund managers “contains more than 50% or even 60% of Hong Kong.”

Furthermore, more and more QDII funds are beginning to withdraw their US stock positions to Hong Kong stocks. This is the complete opposite of QDII's operation to reduce Hong Kong stock allocations and increase US stock positions in the first quarter of last year. Take Harvest Global Internet Fund QDII as an example. The Q1 report shows that fund manager Wang Xinchen significantly lowered his US stock position, reducing his US stock position while vigorously increasing his position on Hong Kong stocks. The latest Hong Kong stock position has jumped to 34%.

Some agencies pointed out that the overall performance of the Chinese economy has been stable since this year. In particular, PMI and trade data since the beginning of the year were generally better than expected, providing investors with confidence support. Furthermore, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a valuation depression. Many globally competitive companies have static price-earnings ratios of only 10 times, which is clearly undervalued, and is preparing huge potential returns.

“Stock King” Tencent took the lead, and Bloomberg shouted to outperform the “Seven Heroes”!

In the current round of the rebound in Hong Kong stocks, TechNet stocks took the lead in surging. Among them,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$Over 19% increase in three days, leading stocks$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Reproducing the “stock king” style, the stock price exploded on the 3rd, once approaching the HK$350 mark.

Recently, Tencent officially announced that “Dungeons and Warriors: Origins” (DNF mobile game), which game fans have been waiting for many years, will officially launch on May 21. As the leading IP product that users have been looking forward to for a long time, “DNF Mobile Game” is expected to bring considerable revenue and performance growth to Tencent after its launch. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed out that the first quarter of this year is expected to be a low point in Tencent's local game business, and the DNF mobile game to be launched in the second quarter will be a turning point.

Furthermore, the HK$100 billion share repurchase plan previously announced by the company is regarded as an important benefit. The market generally believes that this will effectively offset the financial pressure caused by shareholders' holdings reduction and have a positive impact on stock prices.

Bloomberg pointed out that Tencent's cumulative increase since the beginning of the year is about 17%, which has surpassed the share price performance of the Magnificent Seven Total Return Index (Magnificent Seven Total Return Index) of less than 15% during the same period.

Looking at the price-earnings ratio, Tencent's latest forward price-earnings ratio is about 16.5 times, which is clearly lower than the average of 23 to 28 times in the past 5 years. Currently, there is still a lot of room for improvement. Compared to the top seven US stocks, Google, which has the lowest expected price-earnings ratio, is also 23.6 times higher.

Tencent Holdings will release its financial report for the first quarter of 2024 on May 14. In response, some agencies pointed out that Tencent's game and video account business in the first quarter of 2024 showed a positive growth trend. In particular, the game business may increase by 17% month-on-month, and the growth rate is expected to pick up throughout the year.

Domestic and foreign institutions are singing in unison, and the attitude of foreign investors has changed dramatically

After the favorable policy was released, domestic institutions agreed that the new regulations would help unblock connectivity mechanisms, introduce capital activity into the Hong Kong capital market, and enhance liquidity. According to the Cathay Pacific Junan Research Report, the latest measures will continue to drive capital from the mainland into Hong Kong, enhance its influence on the market, and facilitate price stability; the Hong Kong stock Internet policy adjustments and valuation adjustments have been sufficient in the past few years, and stock prices are entering the batting zone, so opportunities for Chinese Internet companies can be examined from a longer-term perspective.

At the same time, foreign-funded institutions' outlook on Chinese assets is also undergoing a major shift. UBS, a major international bank, raised the ratings of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to “additional allocation”, and upgraded the ratings of Chinese stocks to “overallocation.” Sunil Tirumalai, the bank's chief strategist for global emerging market stocks, said that among the constituent stocks of the MSCI China Index, the consumer and internet industries account for a high share, and performance is expected to improve as consumption shows initial signs of recovery.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Kinger Lau, are also optimistic about the performance of the A-share market. The bank believes that China's reform efforts to reshape the capital market will significantly boost the overall valuation of the stock market, and the overall valuation of the A-share market may rise by about 40% under the most optimistic circumstances. The risk appetite of the A-share market is likely to increase in the short term, and the trading environment will also be more favorable.

Market analysts believe that foreign-funded institutions such as UBS and Goldman Sachs rarely raised China's asset ratings, conveying positive judgments on the fundamentals, macroeconomic environment, corporate profit prospects, and policy trends of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, or highlighting initial optimism that the Chinese market is beginning to gradually improve.

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