Introduction to this report:
Core indicators such as profitability, turnover efficiency, and per capita income generation performed well. The organizational system and talent training continued to be strengthened, and long-term development was promising.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. 2023 revenue of 17.51 billion yuan/ +22.9%, net profit attributable to mother of 1,615 billion yuan/ +41.2%, after deducting not 1,344 billion yuan/ +71.9% was in line with expectations. Maintain the forecast for 2024-25 of 4.68/5.42 yuan with a growth rate of 18/16%, and the forecast for 2026 EPS to 6.23 yuan with a 15% growth rate, maintain the target price of 111.07 yuan, and maintain the increase.
Profitability and inventory turnover have all improved markedly. 1) Q1-4 2023 revenue growth rates of 17.5/22.4/29.4/ 21.4%, respectively, after deducting non-net profit growth rates of 54.5/103/65.7/ 70.3%, respectively; 2) gross profit margin 43.5% /+4.8pct, net profit margin 9.68% /+1.36pct, after deducting non-net interest rate 7.68% /+2.2pct, ROE 21.9% /+4.1pct; 3) Expense ratio 34.1% /+2.17pct, with sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios 22.2/ 3.33/8.08/ 0.49%, +1.58/+0.07/+0.49/+0.02pct, respectively; 4) net operating cash flow 1.43 billion yuan/ +0.42%; 5) inventory turnover 5.08 times/+0.15 times.
The share of non-North America has increased, and independent stations have grown significantly. 1) Revenue by region: North America 8.37 billion yuan/ +15.4% accounting for 47.8% in 2023; Europe accounting for 21%; Japan 2.49 billion yuan/ +38.5% accounting for 14.2%; 2) Channel: Amazon 10 billion yuan/ +25.4% accounting for 57.1%; independent stations accounting for 1.24 billion yuan/ +83.9% accounting for 7.1%; offline 5.2 billion yuan/ +8.4% accounting for 29.7%; 3) Categories: Charging and energy storage accounting for 8.6 billion yuan/ +25.1% accounting for 49.1%, The intelligent innovation category was 4.54 billion yuan/ +18.7%, accounting for 25.9%, and the smart video category was 4.29 billion yuan/ +26.5% accounting for 24.5%.
The organizational system and talent training strive for excellence, and the dividends are better than expected. 1) Deepen innovative research and development on the product side, and introduce new technologies such as real-time visual understanding, multi-modal AI perception and decision systems on the end; 2) Initiate Tinder plans and “future creator” recruitment, and cultivate elite talents to lay a solid foundation for future market/category expansion; 3) Deepen organizational values+launch equity incentives, generating 4.59 million yuan per capita in 2023, a further increase from 3.99 million yuan in 2022; 4) Proposed dividend of 812 million yuan (that is, 20 yuan per 10 shares) +3 additional shares per 10 shares The dividend rate is approximately 50%.
Risk warning: Third-party platform operation risk, international trade friction risk, increased industry competition, etc.