Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report. In 24Q1, the company achieved revenue of 74.777 billion yuan, down 0.22% and 9.33%; realized net profit of 6.261 billion yuan, up 15.05% and 26.37%; realized net profit without deduction to mother of 6.224 billion yuan, an increase of 15.93%, and a decrease of 2.89%.
Mineral gold: The price of gold has risen marked+the cost control effect is remarkable, and the performance is impressive. 1) Volume: 24Q1's mineral gold production was 16.8 tons, up 5%, down 5%, sales volume 16.0 tons, down 1%, and 8%. Among them, gold ingot sales increased significantly year-on-year. 2) Price: Driven by interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical catalysts, the 24Q1 gold price rose significantly. The unit price of the company's gold ingots/gold concentrate was 472.74/436.66 yuan/gram, respectively, +15%/+19% year over year, and +7%/+11.3% month-on-month. 3) Cost: The unit cost of 24Q1's gold ingots/gold concentrate was 276.72/145.17 yuan/gram, respectively, +8%/-6% year-on-year, and -6%/-14% month-on-month. The cost control effect was remarkable. The gross margin of 24Q1 gold ingot/gold concentrate was 41.5%/66.8%, respectively, with a significant increase over the same period last year.
Overall, 24Q1 achieved revenue of 7.32 billion yuan, an increase of 17%, gross profit of 3.76 billion yuan, an increase of 24% (+740 million yuan), and a 19% increase (+61 billion yuan).
Mineral copper: The sharp rise in volume and price compounded cost improvements, and the company's mineral copper profit elasticity was released at an accelerated pace. 1) Quantity:
24Q1's mineral copper production was 263,000 tons, an increase of 5%, an increase of 4%, sales volume of 213,000 tons, an increase of 8%, and an increase of 4%. Benefiting from the commissioning of the Boer Smelter in '23, sales volume of 24Q1 electrolytic copper reached 29,000 tons. 2) Price: In the context of both financial attributes and commodity attributes, copper prices showed strong performance. The unit price of copper concentrate/electrodeposited copper/electrolytic copper in 24Q1 was 5.12/5.82/60,500 yuan/ton respectively, which was basically the same year on year, and was +4.3%/+5.2%/+3.6% month-on-month. 3) Cost: 24Q1 The company further implemented the general policy of “improving quality, controlling costs, and increasing efficiency”, and the unit sales cost of copper concentrate was reduced by 13%. Overall, 24Q1 achieved revenue of 11.3 billion yuan of copper, an increase of 10%, a gross profit of 6.54 billion yuan, an increase of 8% (+490 million yuan), and a 25% increase (+1.29 billion yuan).
Profit forecast: The company's key mineral projects at home and abroad are progressing in an orderly manner, and production of copper and gold products is expected to continue to increase. We expect the company's EPS to be 1.01, 1.22, and 1.37 yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and PE will be 17, 14, and 13 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Project progress falls short of expectations, capacity release falls short of expectations, metal price increases fall short of expectations