23 年OBM 业务毛利率提升，国内市场收入高增按照销售模式分，公司2023 年OBM 和ODM 业务营收分别为8.23/4.29 亿元，同比+20.80%/-14.36%，OBM 业务营收保持增长而ODM 业务有所下滑。从毛利率来看，OBM 业务2023 年毛利率51.78%，同比-0.43%；ODM业务毛利率46.69%，同比-0.76%，毛利率均有所下滑。分地区看，2023年公司仍以海外市场为主，国内市场为辅。公司2023 年海外业务收入11.52亿元，同比+0.14%，中国大陆业务收入1.53 亿元，同比+111.27%。The decline in initial production efficiency of new products led to a slowdown in the 23Q4 and 24Q1 revenue recognition pace. The company's revenue for 23 years was 1,305 million yuan (yoy +6.72%), and net profit of 366 million yuan (yoy +2.81%).
The 24Q1 company had revenue of 315 million yuan (yoy -4.55%) and net profit of 101 million yuan (yoy +0.90%).
The company's 23Q4 and 24Q1 revenue recognition was slow. We believe it was mainly due to the company's low initial production efficiency of new products, which dragged down delivery. As the company's production efficiency of new products increases, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue and profit is expected to increase. We expect EPS to be 5.35/6.38/7.65 yuan in 2024-2026. Compared with the company Wind, the average PE value is 21 times, giving the company 21 times PE in 23 years, with a target price of 112.35 yuan (previous value of 126.72 yuan) to maintain “purchase”.
The gross margin of the OBM business increased in 23, and the domestic market revenue increased according to the sales model. The company's OBM and ODM business revenue in 2023 was 823/429 million yuan respectively, +20.80%/-14.36% year-on-year. OBM business revenue continued to grow while ODM business declined. In terms of gross margin, the gross profit margin of the OBM business in 2023 was 51.78%, compared to -0.43%; the gross profit margin of the ODM business was 46.69%, compared to -0.76%, all of which declined. By region, in 2023, the company will still be dominated by overseas markets, supplemented by domestic markets. The company's overseas business revenue in 2023 was 1.152 billion yuan, +0.14% year over year, and mainland China business revenue was 153 million yuan, +111.27% year over year.
Factors such as changes in revenue structure and exchange dragged down the net interest rate in 23. The 24Q1 gross margin picked up, and the company's gross margin in 2023 was 49.96%, -0.22pp year on year; net interest rate was 28.31%, -1.15pp year on year. The decline in the company's gross margin was mainly due to the restructuring of the company's business structure. The share of domestic business revenue with a lower gross margin level increased to 11.73% from 5.92% in '22. In 2023, the company's sales/management/ R&D/ finance rates were 7.73%/6.78%/-4.36%/-2.99%, respectively, +0.90/-1.10/-0.35/+1.66pp, and the cost ratio for the period was 15.87%, +1.12pp. Due to the company's high share of overseas revenue, a decrease in exchange earnings due to exchange rate fluctuations has led to an increase in financial expenses. The 24Q1 company's gross margin was 52.66%, +1.01pp year on year, +6.03pp; net margin was 32.21%, +1.93pp year on year, +13.01pp month-on-month, and profitability picked up significantly.
Demand in the overseas performance market continues to recover, and the company's new production capacity+new products are expected to seize the opportunity. According to Broadway data, its average occupancy rate has reached 92% since 2024 (91% in 2019).
Global performance leader LiveNation earned $22.7 billion in 2023, +36% year over year. Therefore, we believe that demand for overseas live music and entertainment events has recovered significantly, and the company is expected to seize the increase in downstream demand by actively expanding production capacity+expanding new products. In terms of production capacity, the company is actively promoting the construction of projects under construction. Currently, the first phase of the “Performing Arts Lighting Equipment Production Base Phase II Expansion Project” has been officially put into operation. On the product side, on March 3, 2024, the company launched a multi-function laser moving head lamp, LED cutting lamp, and the first fully silent stage computer cutting lamp at the Guangzhou Performing Arts Equipment Intelligent Sound and Light Exhibition. The company's products lead lighting equipment product innovation with unique design and excellent performance, and maintain strong market competitiveness.
Risk warning: Customer production expansion or overseas demand falls short of expectations, equipment acceptance slows down, and industry competition intensifies.
