The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that with the approach of the first settlement point in 2025, the introduction of the hydrogen energy high-speed construction initiative, the issuance of the first wave of subsidies, and the emergence of fuel cell commercial vehicle economics, the promotion of fuel cell vehicles will be greatly accelerated starting this year. Among them, high-value fuel cell core components such as fuel cell systems, electric stacks, and hydrogen storage bottles will take the lead in benefiting from vehicle emissions, focusing on leading companies and their supporting suppliers: Guohong Hydrogen Energy (09663), Yihuatong (688339.SH), and CIMC Anriko (03899) , Furui Special Equipment (300228.SZ), Cowell (688551.SH).

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

Policy guidelines and full subsidies have promoted fuel cell vehicle demonstrations first, and full-life cycle cost parity and targeted subsidies will be the focus of the next phase

Currently, the number of fuel cell vehicles is about 20,000, and there is still room for rapid growth until the national hydrogen medium- and long-term plan for 2025. The implementation of the first batch of subsidies in the model city cluster has driven fuel cell demonstration operations for nearly 3 years. Currently, high-speed fee relief for fuel cell vehicles may be a trend. 49-ton fuel cell heavy trucks are expected to achieve full life cycle cost (TCO) parity with the support of various subsidies and the supply of cheap hydrogen. Target pressure+subsidy issuance+affordability can be expected, and fuel cell vehicles will enter the release stage.

The top-level policy determines the status of hydrogen energy, and there is a gap of 30,000 fuel cell vehicles in 2 years. The country's top-level plan for 2025 is 50,000. The plan is about to be confirmed. By the end of 2023, the number of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) owned is about 20,000. Conservatively, the 2024-2025 CAGR will reach 56.17%.

Subsidies issued for model urban agglomeration, opening up application scenarios for hydrogen energy demonstration high-speed construction

Fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters have been subsidized for development, and the issuance of state subsidies has firm confidence in development. The first year's subsidy funds have already been announced at 772 million yuan, and promotion in various cities is expected to accelerate in the future. At the same time, Sinopec launched a demonstration of the Beijing-Shanghai Hydrogen Corridor. Combined with the “Joint Action Initiative to Build China's Hydrogen Energy High Speed” and the policy of exempting FCV expressway tolls, application scenarios represented by long-distance transportation were launched.

Economy is a necessary prerequisite for commercialization. FCV can achieve a 20% economic advantage under technological iteration+improved supporting facilities+policy subsidies

Fuel cell heavy trucks are initially economical under current subsidies and cheap hydrogen. At this stage, on the one hand, large-scale supply of upstream hydrogen production terminals has begun, and on the other hand, the number of hydrogen fueling stations has reached more than 400. At this time, resistance to fuel cell vehicle applications has declined, and promotion will be greatly accelerated in the past two years. In addition, the continuous implementation of targeted policies will also accelerate promotion. Eliminating highway fees will make the TCO advantage of fuel cell heavy trucks more remarkable, and achieve an economic advantage of more than 20%. Systems, electric stacks, hydrogen storage cylinders, and high-value fuel cell components were the first to benefit.

The fuel cell industry can be expected to grow at a high rate in the next two years. Fuel cell vehicle emissions will drive a high increase in demand for core components. Fuel cell systems (accounting for about 60% of vehicle costs), electric stacks (accounting for about 60% of the total cost of the vehicle), and vehicle hydrogen supply systems (accounting for about 20% of the total vehicle cost) will take the lead in meeting the opportunity. The market space for systems and electric stacks is looking at 10 billion in 2025. The automotive high-pressure hydrogen storage bottle and hydrogen supply system market is growing rapidly along with the volume of fuel cell vehicles.

Leading fuel cell companies account for more than half of the market, focusing on the top five suppliers: Yihuatong, Reshape Energy, Guohong Hydrogen Energy, Jiehydrogen Technology, and China Power Investment; the market share of the automotive high-pressure hydrogen storage bottle industry is relatively concentrated, focusing on companies with high market share. Companies such as Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Aoyang Technology, Sinoma Technology, Beijing Co., Ltd., and CIMC Enric have a high market share.

Risk warning

The implementation of the policy fell short of expectations, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations fell short of expectations, and the reduction in hydrogen gas costs fell short of expectations.