Incidents:
On April 24, 2024, the company released the 2023 Annual Report and the 2024 First Quarter Report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 587 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.86%; realized net profit of 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.08%; realized net profit without deduction of 32 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 83.97%. In 2024, Q1 achieved operating income of 154 million yuan, an increase of 16.64% over the previous year; achieved net profit of 16.89 million yuan, an increase of 36.66% over the previous year; and realized net profit without deduction of 13.53 million yuan, an increase of 126.08% over the previous year.
The 2023 results were in line with expectations, and revenue and profits were under phased pressure.
The 2023 results were in line with expectations, and revenue and profit were generally in line with the earnings report released in February 2024. On the revenue side, the company's revenue declined to a certain extent in 2023, mainly due to factors such as fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, tightening the biomedical investment and financing environment, and increased industry competition. If revenue from magnetic bead products used for nucleic acid testing in the same period in 2022 is excluded, revenue is expected to drop 7.59% year-on-year in 2023. By business, in 2023, the company's biomedical sector achieved revenue of 545 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.65%; among them, the company's core business, chromatographic fillers and chromatography media products achieved operating income of 409 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.52%; protein chromatography systems and accessories achieved operating income of 60 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.73%; in vitro diagnostic business revenue fell sharply by 93.42% year on year, mainly due to nucleic acid Sales revenue for testing magnetic bead products has basically returned to zero.
On the profit side, the company's net profit declined significantly in 2023, mainly due to factors such as increased R&D investment, amortization of equity incentive payments, one-time investment income, and impairment of the goodwill of Sepure Instruments. If two factors such as amortization of share payments and investment income from the acquisition of SESP instruments in the same period in 2022 are excluded, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mother 162 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.90%.
The revenue side turned positive in Q1 2023, and the profit side improved markedly.
The company's performance in Q1 2024 began to pick up. On the revenue side, the company's revenue in Q1 increased 16.64% year on year in 2024. Among them, Fuli Instruments began and listed in March 2024, contributing 13.88 million yuan in revenue. If the impact of the merger is excluded, Q1 company's revenue endogenously increased 6.1% year over year in 2024. By business, in 2024, the company's main business chromatographic fillers and chromatography media increased by about 11.1% year on year, the analytical consumables business increased by about 27.3% year on year, and the protein chromatography instrument business still experienced a sharp decline. Looking at the profit side, with the correction of the revenue side, the company's net profit and net profit after deducting non-net profit in Q1 2024 achieved high year-on-year growth. The amortization amount for Q1 share payments in 2024 was still as high as 25.28 million yuan, but it was reduced by 8.55 million yuan compared to Q1 in 2023. As subsequent amortization expenses gradually decreased, the profit side improvement is expected to become more obvious.
Observe the popularity of “water sellers” through the number of customers and customer structure.
We believe that as a supporting industrial chain for the biomedical industry, the demand for chromatographic fillers and chromatography media is highly correlated with the number of downstream customers and customer structure. In 2023, the number of company customers will continue to increase, the customer structure will continue to be optimized, and the boom can be expected.
(1) Increased number of strategic reserve customers: Judging from the number of customers, the number of customers selling chromatographic fillers and chromatography media products in 2023 was 769, an increase of 158 over the previous year. The company signed strategic cooperation agreements with key customers such as Zhaowei, Kangfang Pharmaceutical, Jinsai Pharmaceutical, Kingsley, Dongyao Pharmaceutical, Tianjing Biotech, Zhixiang Jintai, Pelidot, and Kunpeng Biotech. The sales amount from contracted strategic customers in 2023 was about 170 million yuan, accounting for about 42% of the chromatographic filler business revenue. According to the development plan, in 2024, the company will continue to comprehensively deepen strategic customer partnerships and strive to add more than 5 strategic customers for innovative drugs throughout the year. Sales from strategic customers will increase to more than 50% of the total business revenue of chromatographic fillers.
(2) Increased share of mid-stage projects: Looking at the project stage, chromatographic fillers and chromatography media products used in production or phase III clinical projects achieved sales revenue of about 257 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 62.84%, an increase of 4.4 pct over the previous year. In 2023, the company introduced 14 new Phase III antibody projects, and several customer antibody projects introduced in previous years have entered the new drug registration stage. From the early clinical stage to the post-clinical stage to the commercialization stage, the demand for chromatographic fillers and chromatography media gradually increased. As the proportion of mid- to late-stage projects increased, the elasticity of demand for the company's related products increased dramatically.
(3) Demand for polypeptides is impressive: Judging from the type of project, chromatographic media products used in four types of macromolecular drug projects, including antibodies (including ADC), recombinant proteins, vaccines, and nucleic acid drugs, achieved sales revenue of about 250 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of about 14.4%; in 2023, chromatographic filler products used in four types of small to medium molecule drug projects, including insulin, peptides, antibiotics, and contrast agents, achieved sales revenue of about 142 million yuan, an increase of about 26.5% over the previous year. Among them, the application direction of polypeptide drugs represented by GLP-1 has accumulated rich results Application examples achieved sales revenue of about 67 million yuan of chromatographic fillers, an increase of about 96.4% over the previous year.
(4) International business development is worth looking forward to: the company allocates resources to form an international business team to fully deploy and implement the company's international market expansion strategy. According to the development plan, in 2024, the company will aim to complete the construction and operation of two overseas application laboratories in North America and India to effectively support the company's overseas business layout and strive to achieve the goal of 100% year-on-year growth in international business. In terms of product reserves, the company already has 4 chromatography media products that have passed the FDA's DMF registration. In 2024, the company plans to complete the DMF filing for 4 new products to help China's bioinnovative drug project carry out double reporting between China and the US.
Investment advice:
If we consider Fuli Instruments starting in March 2024, we expect the company's operating income from 2024 to 2026 to be 821 million yuan, 977 million yuan, and 1,164 million yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 116 million yuan, 195 million yuan, and 260 million yuan respectively. From a customer perspective, we believe that the company's long-term prosperity can be expected. Considering that 2024 will still be affected by amortization of equity payments, the 2025 profit forecast is used as a reference. If a 50-fold PE valuation is given in 2025, the corresponding 12-month target price of 24.00 yuan will be given an investment rating of -A.
Risk warning: Biomedical investment and financing fell short of expectations; the risk of increased competition in the industry; the integration of mergers and acquisitions fell short of expectations, and overseas development fell short of expectations.