Great Wall Motor: Maintaining high-quality growth; looking forward to a new product cycle

中金公司 · Apr 25 · Researches

1Q24 业绩高于市场预期

公司公布1Q24 业绩：收入428.6 亿元，同比+47.6%；归母净利润32.3 亿元，同比+1752.6%；扣非归母净利润20.2 亿元，同比扭亏。1Q24 销量稳健，产品结构改善带动毛利率提升，税费加计抵减等带来可持续非经增厚，归母净利超市场预期。

发展趋势

新能源转型进度加速，产品结构改善，保持高质量增长。1Q24 公司总销量为275,333 辆，同比+25.1%，销量同比增长表现稳健、跑赢行业，产品结构改善持续是带动单车收入毛利率改善的核心驱动力。分地区看，海外销售92,778 辆，同比+78.5%，占比增至34%。分动力类型看，1Q24 新能源车累计销售59,182 辆，同比+112.8%，占比增至21.5%。分品牌看，哈弗/WEY/坦克1Q24 销量分别为157,889 辆/9,608 辆/18,953 辆，同比+25.5%/182.3%/103.2%，坦克销量占比同比提升较大。

高盈利车型+降本带动毛利率改善，非经损益具备一定持续性。1Q24 毛利率为20.0%，同环比+4.0/1.6ppt；单车收入15.6 万元，同比+17.9%/环比+6.4%，再度创新高。费用端，1Q24 销售/研发费用分别为17.1/19.6 亿元，同比+17.3%/+27.7%，管理费用同比下降，保持研发强度。1Q24 确认非经损益12 亿元，主要系地方政府补贴、增值税加计减免和全球工厂布局本地化生产带来税收返还等综合影响，其中大部分具有持续性。截至1Q24，公司在手现金及等价物余额达322 亿元，细分领域龙头竞争力进一步夯实盈利基座，助力新能源转型。

北京车展开启2024 年全新产品周期，海内外渠道布局加速。公司计划于北京车展发布新一代哈弗H6/H9、WEY 蓝山智驾版等，坦克300 Hi4-T 预售表现强劲。我们认为公司智能化能力和越野车型方面积淀深厚，随着畅销车型换代和北京车展集中亮相，或助推公司开启强劲产品周期。公司计划升级渠道模式，推动线上线下渠道融合和建设海外渠道，公司预计2024 年海外渠道达1200 家，海外销量冲击40-50 万辆；同时重点突破组织架构变革和提升营销能力，关注互联网对销量的刺激。我们认为，公司海外本土化布局、智能技术开启商业化和渠道变革有望助力公司延续1Q24 高质量增长。

盈利预测与估值

当前股价对应A/H 股 20x/8x 24E P/E。基于增值税加计减免等的持续性，我们上调24/25 年盈利预测11%/10%至105/127 亿元。基于港股估值折价收窄预期，我们维持跑赢行业评级并上调A/H 股目标价10%/26%至33 元/14.5 港币，较当前有33%/29%上行空间，对应A/H 股27x/12x 24E P/E。

风险

价格竞争激烈超预期；海外销量增长不及预期。

1Q24 results were higher than market expectations

The company announced 1Q24 results: revenue of 42.86 billion yuan, +47.6% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 3.23 billion yuan, +1752.6% year-on-year; net profit of non-return to mother of 2.02 billion yuan, reversal of year-on-year losses. 1Q24 sales were steady, product structure improvements led to an increase in gross margin, tax deductions, etc., which led to a sustainable increase, and net profit to the mother exceeded market expectations.

Development trends

The transformation of new energy sources has accelerated, the product structure has been improved, and high-quality growth has been maintained. The total sales volume of the 1Q24 company was 275,333 units, +25.1% year over year. The year-on-year sales growth performance was steady and outperformed the industry. Continued improvement in product structure is the core driving force driving the improvement in bicycle revenue and gross margin. By region, 92,778 vehicles were sold overseas, +78.5% year-on-year, and the share increased to 34%. By power type, the total sales of new energy vehicles in 1Q24 was 59,182 units, +112.8% year-on-year, and the share increased to 21.5%. By brand, the sales volume of Haval/WEY/Tank 1Q24 was 157,889 units/9,608 units/18,953 units respectively, +25.5%/182.3%/103.2% compared with the same period last year, with tank sales accounting for a significant year-on-year increase.

High-profit models+cost reduction drive an improvement in gross margin, and non-profit and loss have a certain degree of sustainability. 1Q24 gross margin was 20.0%, +4.0/1.6ppt; bicycle revenue was 156,000 yuan, +17.9% YoY +6.4%, another record high. On the cost side, 1Q24 sales/R&D expenses were 171/1.96 billion yuan respectively, +17.3%/+27.7% year over year. Management expenses decreased year on year, maintaining R&D intensity. 1Q24 confirmed non-profit and loss of 1.2 billion yuan, mainly due to the comprehensive impact of local government subsidies, value-added tax deductions, and tax rebates brought about by localized production in global factory layouts, most of which are sustainable. As of 1Q24, the company's cash and equivalent balance reached 32.2 billion yuan, further consolidating the competitiveness of leading players in the segment and contributing to the transformation of new energy sources.

BAIC launches a new product cycle in 2024, and the domestic and overseas channel layout is accelerating. The company plans to release the next-generation Haval H6/H9, WEY Blue Mountain Smart Driving Edition, etc. at the Beijing Auto Show. The pre-sale performance of the 300 Hi4-T tank was strong. We believe that the company has accumulated deep intelligence capabilities and off-road models. With the replacement of best-selling models and intensive showings at the Beijing Auto Show, it may help the company start a strong product cycle. The company plans to upgrade the channel model, promote the integration of online and offline channels and build overseas channels. The company expects to reach 1,200 overseas channels by 2024, and overseas sales will hit 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles; at the same time, it will focus on breaking through organizational structure changes and improving marketing capabilities, and focusing on the Internet's stimulation of sales. We believe that the company's overseas localization, commercialization of intelligent technology, and channel transformation are expected to help the company continue its high-quality growth in 1Q24.

Profit forecasting and valuation

The current stock price corresponds to A/H shares 20x/8x 24E P/E. Based on the continuity of VAT deductions, etc., we raised our 24/25 profit forecast 11%/10% to 105/12.7 billion yuan. Based on expectations of narrowing the valuation discount of Hong Kong stocks, we maintained an outperforming industry rating and raised the target price of A/H shares by 10%/26% to HK$33/HK$14.5, which has 33%/29% upside compared to the current level, corresponding to 27x/12x 24E P/E for A/H shares.

risks

Price competition was fierce and exceeded expectations; overseas sales growth fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

长城汽车：保持高质量增长；期待全新产品周期

Great Wall Motor: Maintaining high-quality growth; looking forward to a new product cycle

Risk Disclaimer

Statement