Event: The company released its results report for the first quarter of 2024. The company achieved operating income of 45.395 billion yuan in the first quarter, -23.27% year on year; net profit to mother of 4.97 billion yuan, or -30.55% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 4.892 billion yuan, or -31.42% year on year.
Coal business: Commercial coal production and sales have declined, and prices have declined. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's commercial coal production/sales volume was 3273/63.87 million tons, -1.71%/-14.58%, of which self-produced commercial coal sales volume was 32.31 million tons, -0.8% year on year; trade coal sales volume was 29.73 million tons, -24.37% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the sales price of the company's own coal was 598 yuan/ton, -10.88%; the cost of a ton of coal was 290.97 yuan, +6.76% year-on-year; gross profit of a ton of coal was 307 yuan, or -22.9% year-on-year.
Coal chemical business: Prices in the chemical sector have declined, and cost reduction and efficiency are progressing steadily. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's sales volume of polyolefin/urea/methanol was 37.3/55.1/396,000 tons, +2.19%/-14.57%/-21.89% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's price of polyolefin/urea/methanol was 6848/2237/1675 yuan/ton, -2.95%/-17.7%/-8.57%; the cost was 5899/1561/1741 yuan, -5.80%/-15.02%/-18.26% year-on-year.
Deepen industrial collaboration and continue to expand the business scale. In recent years, the company has optimized its industrial layout and promoted the commencement of construction of several projects. On the coal side, projects such as the Libi Coal Mine and Weizigou Coal Mine are expected to be completed and put into operation in 2025, and there is still room for growth in the company's medium- to long-term production; in terms of coal chemicals, China Coal Shaanxi Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to invest in the Yulin coal deep processing project, covering 2.2 million tons of methanol/year and 900,000 tons of polyolefin per year, and build 1 EVA and 3 sets of polyolefin plants to produce a series of high-end polyolefin products; in terms of electricity, the Antaibao 2×350MW low calorific value coal power generation project will be completed and put into operation in Wuqi in 24, The power plant project is scheduled to begin construction in '24. Multiple industries are being promoted collaboratively, and future growth can be expected.
Profit forecast: Considering the continuous release of production capacity of the company's mines under construction and future product price changes, we expect the company's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2137/2154/224.1 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 210/219.25.8 billion yuan, EPS 1.58/1.95 yuan, PE 7.11/6.80/5. 78 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Project progress falls short of expectations; coal prices fall beyond expectations; falling oil prices are dragging down chemical prices