多因素致使1Q24 营收波动，费用改善助力盈利环比提升。参考中汽协，1Q24 重卡行业批发销量同环比+13%/+33%致27.2 万辆，1Q24 轻卡行业批发销量同环比+2%/-9%致48.6 万辆。公司1Q24 营收同比增速跑输行业，主要受到4Q23 为迎接旺季提前备货、春节假期停工停产以及同期高基数等多因素影响。公司盈利能力环比改善，1Q24 毛利率同环比+0.2pct/+1.9pct 至24.3%，净利率同环比-1.1pct/+2.1pct 至9.6%。公司1Q24 销售/研发/管理/财务费用率分别为1.3%/6.4%/5.4%/-0.5%，同比+0.4pct/+0.4pct/+1.4pct/-0.8pct，环比-0.7pct/-1.5pct/-0.3pct/+0pct，我们认为费用环比改善主要受4Q23 股份支付费用确认、年终奖金计提影响。1Q24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced performance: 1Q24 revenue -2.3%/-9.1% YoY to 960 million yuan, net profit to mother -11.8%/+15.7% YoY to RMB 9.53 million, net profit of -5.1%/+23.3% YoY after deducting non-net profit of -5.1%/+23.3% YoY. It met our expectations.
Development trends
Due to multiple factors, 1Q24 revenue fluctuated, and cost improvements helped increase profits month-on-month. Referring to the China Automobile Association, the 1Q24 heavy truck industry's wholesale sales volume was +13%/+33% YoY to 272,000 units, and the 1Q24 light truck industry's wholesale sales volume was +2%/-9% YoY to 486,000 units. The company's 1Q24 revenue outperformed the industry at a year-on-year rate, which was mainly affected by various factors such as early preparation for the peak season in 4Q23, the shutdown of work and production during the Spring Festival holiday, and the high base for the same period. The company's profitability improved month-on-month, with 1Q24 gross margin +0.2pct/+1.9pct to 24.3%, and net margin -1.1 pct/+2.1pct to 9.6% month-on-month. The company's 1Q24 sales/R&D/management/finance expense ratios were 1.3%/6.4%/-0.5%, respectively, +0.4pct/+0.4pct/+1.4pct/-0.8pct, and -0.7pct/-1.5pct/-0.3pct/+0pct month-on-month. We believe that the month-on-month improvement in expenses was mainly affected by confirmation of 4Q23 share payment fees and year-end bonus accrual.
The heavy truck industry is compounding exports in the upward cycle, and we are optimistic that the 2024 performance will increase steadily. We judge that in 2024, the sales volume of the heavy truck industry is expected to increase by 10-15% year-on-year to 1-1.05 million units due to factors such as renewal and replacement, stable exports, and heavy natural gas truck volume. The industry will continue its upward cycle, driving steady growth in the company's main crankshaft connecting business. In 2023, the company's export revenue was +23.4% to 790 million yuan. Downstream customers include international OEMs such as Cummins, Daimler, Volvo, Caterpillar, and Deutz. We believe the company is expected to continue to expand its international market share and drive overseas revenue and profit growth with its cost performance and production capacity advantages.
Furthermore, the company's suspension and electronic control transition to two major emerging businesses are progressing smoothly, continuing to explore passenger customers, domestic and foreign markets, and we expect potential valuation catalysts in the future.
Abundant cash assets, high dividend capacity and desire for high dividends. As of 1Q24, the company had monetary capital of 1.12 billion yuan, short-term loans of 340 million yuan, undistributed profit of 3.22 billion yuan, and abundant net cash, forming a safety cushion for high dividends. The company's capital expenditure for 2022 to 2023 is in the downward channel. The annual report shows that the domestic market share of the company's heavy/diesel light engine crankshafts reached 60%/42%. By the end of 2023, the company's annual production capacity of crankshafts/connecting rods was 260/7.76 million units, which is quite abundant. Emerging businesses such as idle suspension and electronic control are still in the early stages of expansion. We judge that the probability of the company's subsequent large-scale capital expenditure is low. Considering that the company released the “Shareholder Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2024-2026)” in March, we believe that the company has the ability and will to continue to pay high dividends, and we estimate a dividend rate of 5.6% in 2024.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The profit forecast for 2024/2025 remains unchanged. Maintain an outperforming industry rating. The current stock price corresponds to 12.1/10.1 times 2024/2025 P/E. The target price remains unchanged at 7.51 yuan, corresponding to 16.2/13.7 times the 2024/2025 P/E, with 33.9% upside compared to the present.
risks
Production and sales in the commercial vehicle industry fell short of expectations, development of emerging businesses fell short of expectations, and customer development fell short of expectations.