ZHEJIANG DINGLI(603338):4Q23 & 1Q24 EARNINGS IN LINE; STAYING POSITIVE ON OVERSEAS GROWTH
ZHEJIANG DINGLI(603338):4Q23 & 1Q24 EARNINGS IN LINE; STAYING POSITIVE ON OVERSEAS GROWTH
Zhejiang Dingli (Dingli)'s net profit in 2023 grew 49% YoY to RMB1.87bn, in line with the pre-announced profit of RMB1.86bn in Jan. In 1Q24, the adjusted net profit (excluding fair value loss of RMB101mn) grew 27% YoY to RMB404mn, which is in line with our expectation. During the post results call, management revealed that sales in the US has accelerated since early Apr, with a full year sales target of 2k units of boom lifts. Besides, boom lifts sales in overseas is expected to exceed that in China in 2024E (47% in 2023), implying better gross margin. In addition, phase five production plant is in ramp up stage, with a monthly boom lift output of 150 units at present which will be gradually increased. We raise our 2024E/25E earnings forecast by 7%/9%, due to higher assumptions on volume, gross margin and finance income. Accordingly, we revise up our TP to RMB75, based on unchanged 18x 2024E P/E (1SD below the historical average of 31x). Dingli remains our key pick given the continuous breakthrough in overseas market.
浙江鼎立（鼎立）2023年的淨利潤同比增長49％，達到18.7億元人民幣，與1月份預先公佈的18.6億元人民幣利潤一致。在24年第一季度，調整後的淨利潤（不包括人民幣1.01億元的公允價值損失）同比增長27％至人民幣4.04億元，符合我們的預期。在業績發佈會上，管理層透露，自4月初以來，美國的銷售有所加速，全年銷售目標是2,000臺動臂升降機。此外，景氣提振海外銷售額預計在2024E將超過中國的銷售額（2023年爲47％），這意味着毛利率的提高。此外，第五階段生產工廠正處於擴建階段，目前每月的動臂升降機產量爲150臺，並將逐步增加。由於對銷量、毛利率和財務收入的假設有所提高，我們將2024E/25E的收益預測提高了7％/9％。因此，我們根據不變的18倍2024市盈率（比31倍的歷史平均水平低1美元），將目標上調至 RMB75。鑑於海外市場的持續突破，丁利仍然是我們的主要選擇。
4Q23 net profit +51% YoY to a record high. Revenue grew 23% YoY to RMB1.57bn in 4Q23. Gross margin expanded 4.1ppt YoY to 41%, driven by rising margin of boom lifts. Administrative expense ratio expanded 1ppt to 2.6%. Net profit surged 51% YoY to RMB574mn which is a record high. For the full year in 2023, revenue grew 16% YoY to RMB6.3bn (overseas/China mix: 64%/36%). Among the overseas sales, 75% came from the US and Europe. Net profit grew 49% YoY to RMB1.87bn. Proposed dividend implies 27% payout ratio (up from 20% in 2022).
2023年第四季度淨利潤同比增長51％，創歷史新高。收入在23年第四季度同比增長23％，達到15.7億元人民幣。受動臂升降機利潤率上升的推動，毛利率同比增長4.1個百分點至41％。管理費用比率增長了1個百分點至2.6％。淨利潤同比增長51％，至人民幣5.74億元，創歷史新高。2023年全年，收入同比增長16％，達到63億元人民幣（海外/中國組合：64％/36％）。在海外銷售中，有75％來自美國和歐洲。淨利潤同比增長49％至人民幣18.7億元。擬議的股息意味着27％的派息率（高於2022年的20％）。
Adjusted net profit +27% YoY in 1Q24: Revenue grew 11% YoY to RMB1.45bn. Dingli revealed that a portion of the overseas sales in 1Q24 will be recognized as revenue in 2Q24. Gross margin expanded 3.5ppt to 41.1% (largely stable QoQ). Dingli recognized RMB101mn of fair value loss due to the share price pullback of Horizon CD (9930 HK, BUY). Excluding this item, the adjusted net profit would be RMB404mn, up 27% YoY.
24年第一季度調整後的淨利潤同比增長27％：收入同比增長11％，達到14.5億元人民幣。丁利透露，24年第一季度的部分海外銷售額將在24年第二季度確認爲收入。毛利率增長了3.5個百分點至41.1％（環比基本穩定）。鼎立承認，由於Horizon CD（9930 HK，買入）股價回調，導致人民幣1.01億元的公允價值虧損。不包括該項目，調整後的淨利潤將爲人民幣4.04億元，同比增長27％。
Progress of anti-dumping investigation in the EU. Dingli expects the results will be announced in Jun. In the meantime, Dingli has accelerated the sales to the EU in response to the rush orders. Europe accounts for ~37% of Dingli's overseas sales, in which the EU accounts for half. We think the risk is manageable given Dingli's experience in handling the investigation in the US.
歐盟反傾銷調查的進展。丁利預計業績將在6月公佈。同時，爲了應對緊急訂單，丁利加快了對歐盟的銷售。歐洲約佔丁利海外銷售額的37％，其中歐盟佔一半。鑑於丁利在美國處理調查的經驗，我們認爲風險是可以控制的。
Key risks: (1) Further intensified competition in China's AWP market; (2) slowdown of overseas demand; and (3) higher-than-expected anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties in the US and EU.
主要風險：（1）中國AWP市場的競爭進一步加劇；（2）海外需求放緩；（3）美國和歐盟的反傾銷稅和反補貼稅高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。