监管趋严加速中小产能退出，萤石供需格局有望长期向好。关于本轮政策对供给端的影响，考虑行业数据缺失，我们通过格局进行展望：根据中国矿业联合会《中国萤石行业报告（2023）》，截至2023 年3 月，全国单一型萤石矿山共688 座，其中核定5 万吨以下/5-10 万吨/10 万吨以上的矿山数量占比分别为79.7%/14.5%/5.8%；另外我们梳理了内蒙古、浙江、河南、福建、湖南五大省份2010-2011 年萤石矿开采总量分配情况表，1 万吨以下/1-5 万吨的矿山产能占比分别为27%/53%，供给呈现明显小散乱格局，本轮专项整治或将加速落后中小型矿山退出，萤石供需格局有望长期向好。The company released its 2024 quarterly report. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 448 million yuan, +166.5% year-on-year, and -39.6% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 60.54 million yuan, +74.9% YoY, -41.1% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 61.14 million yuan, +83.4% YoY and -41.8% month-on-month. The year-on-year increase in performance was mainly due to Baotou's “selection and integration” volume, while the month-on-month decline was mainly due to seasonal effects of the off-season in the first quarter.
Seasonality affected the month-on-month decline in single mineral sales in Q1, and Baogang's integrated production and marketing release pace was good. Single mine: The company's fluorite concentrate production/sales volume in the first quarter reached 56/ 54,000 tons, respectively, -15.9%/-51.2% month-on-month, 2024Q1 fluorite market average price was 3,317 yuan/ton, +11.1% month-on-month, and -9.1% month-on-month; associated mine: the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride project achieved production/sales volume of 238/2.4 million tons in the first quarter, +11.2%/+11.1% month-on-month, with an average price of 9750 yuan/ton, +1.2% month-on-month, and -9.1% month-on-month; Sales volume 41,400 tons (Excluding personal use); Lepidolite ore: In the first quarter, lepidomite concentrate production/sales volume was 0.95/ 0.56 million tons, respectively, or -43.5%/+69.7% month-on-month.
The tightening of supply compounded the peak demand season, and the price of fluorite rose easily and was difficult to fall in the second quarter. In March, the General Department of the State Mine Safety Supervision Administration issued the “Notice on Launching Special Remediation for Production Safety in Fluorite Mines”, which requires provincial regions with many fluorite mines, such as Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Henan, and county-level regions where some fluorite mines are concentrated to draw up a list of “three batches” to stabilize and improve the production safety order of fluorite mines. On the price side, the price of fluorite has continued to rise since February 28. As of April 22, it had risen 235 yuan/ton to 3,510 yuan/ton, while anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was supported by the cost side and rose 1,042 yuan/ton to 10,567 yuan/ton. It is expected to remain strong in the second quarter.
Stricter regulations are accelerating the withdrawal of small and medium production capacity, and the fluorite supply and demand pattern is expected to improve in the long term. Regarding the impact of this round of policies on the supply side, considering the lack of industry data, we looked at it through a pattern: according to the China Mining Federation's “China Fluorite Industry Report (2023)”, as of March 2023, there were 688 single fluorite mines nationwide, of which the number of approved mines below 50,000 tons/5-10 thousand tons/100,000 tons or more accounted for 79.7%/14.5%/5.8%, respectively; in addition, we sorted out the total distribution table for fluorite mining in the five major provinces of Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Henan, Fujian, and Hunan in 2010-2011 Mine production capacity of 10,000 tons/10,000 to 50,000 tons accounts for 27%/53%, respectively. Supply shows a pattern of slight scattering. This round of special remediation may accelerate the exit of backward small and medium-sized mines, and the fluorite supply and demand pattern is expected to improve in the long term.
The basic market for a single mine is stable in 2024, and Baotou's “selection and integration” is expected to open up all lines. In 2024, the company's single fluorite mine plans to produce 400,000-500,000 tons of various fluorite products; the Baogang Goldstone Resources Comprehensive Utilization Project plans to produce 50-600,000 tons of fluorite powder and 15-20 thousand tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride; Jiangxi Jinling Lithium plans to produce 70,000 to 90,000 tons of lithium mica concentrate. The opening of the entire Baotou project is expected to contribute to strong performance support.
Investment advice: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 718/12.4/1.46 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 25.6/14.8/12.6 times, respectively, to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product prices fluctuate, capacity construction falls short of expectations, and overseas fluorite supply increases risk
