FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Wednesday (April 24), although falling US crude oil inventories laid the foundation for stopping the fall in oil prices, US commercial activity slowed down and oil prices fell as concerns about the Middle East conflict eased. #原油收盘 #

WTI crude oil futures for June closed down $0.55 per barrel, or 0.66%, to close at $82.81 per barrel. As of press release, it is currently reported at $82.88 per barrel, a decrease of 0.58%.

(US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures chart, source: FX168)

Brent crude oil futures fell $0.40 per barrel, or 0.45%, to close at $88.02 per barrel. As of press release, the current report was $87.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.31%.

(Brent crude oil futures chart, source: FX168)

[Market News Analysis]

The reduction in geopolitical risk premiums overshadows the American Petroleum Institute's optimistic inventory data. In contrast, oil futures continued to tighten. Meanwhile, the US Senate approved the bill last night. The bill will expand the scope of sanctions to foreign ports, ships, and refineries that deliberately process or transport Iranian crude oil in violation of existing US sanctions.

Matador Economics economist Tim Snyder (Tim Snyder) said, “The fundamentals of our transactions seem to tend to stabilize slightly in the Middle East.”

Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) analysts said in a report that the easing of the situation between Iran and Israel may drop another 5-10 US dollars/barrel in the next few months. These analysts estimate the upper limit of Brent crude oil at $90 per barrel.

Expectations that major central banks will cut interest rates to support economic growth, thereby stimulating fuel consumption, and the unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories last week will help limit the room for crude oil prices to fall.

According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the decline in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week up to April 19 was the biggest since the week of January 19, 2024; the US recorded the largest increase in EIA strategic oil reserve inventories since the week of January 26, 2024, for the 19th consecutive week.

US oil inventories fell by 6.37 million barrels last week to 453.6 million barrels. The decline in inventories was greater than most analysts' expectations. It was the biggest decline since January. The decline in US and Burundian oil narrowed. As geopolitical risks in the Middle East begin to ease, oil prices have fallen from recent highs above $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, the US Senate passed tougher measures against Iran in response to Iran's attack on Israel earlier this month. While some Asian refiners are preparing for more stringent scrutiny, the move is not expected to have a significant impact on the market. The time difference shows that the oil market situation is tightening. The price difference between the two recent Brent crude oil contracts widened to 1.05 US dollars/barrel, and is at a spot premium.

The Russian Ministry of Economy expects crude oil exports to reach 240 tons (about 4.82 million barrels) this year, slightly higher than last year's 238 tons. Exports remained flat this year mainly because the country agreed to extend production cuts after OPEC+ plans to balance the oil market. Production cuts will continue until the end of this year. Russia may gradually increase its overseas shipments to 247 tons in 2025, and to 257 tons a year later, the post said.

UBS (UBS) analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that large crude oil pumping is the result of very high crude oil exports. But he said it might be a one-off because this week's preliminary tanker tracking data showed a decline in exports.

Meanwhile, the initial value of the composite PMI output index tracking manufacturing and services fell from 52.1 in March to 50.9 this month. After the data was released, the US dollar (USD) fell to its lowest level in more than a week, which seemed to further support commodities. Despite this, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, thereby supporting the prospects for some dollar dips, so caution is needed before preparing for further recent increases in crude oil prices.

A survey on Wednesday showed that business morale in Germany improved more than expected in April, boosting hopes that the worst period for Europe's largest economy may be over.

Although concerns about geopolitical tension in the Middle East have abated, the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to rage, with the heaviest shelling in weeks on Tuesday. Israel is preparing to withdraw from Rafah before promising to attack the city, sources said on Wednesday.

Currently, the market's focus is still on the US first-quarter GDP report and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released on Thursday and Friday.

[Focus on financial data and events on the next trading day (Beijing time)]

(1) 14:00 German May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

(2) 18:00 UK CBI retail sales margin for April

(3) Number of jobless claims in the US at 20:30 to the beginning of the week of April 20

(4) Preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States at 20:30

(5) Preliminary quarterly rate of actual US personal consumption expenditure for the first quarter at 20:30

(6) Preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index for the first quarter at 20:30

(7) 22:00 Monthly rate of the US existing home contract sales index for March

(8) EIA natural gas inventory for the week from 22:30 US to April 19