The year-on-year revenue/net profit to mother was +1.6%/+54.7%, maintaining the “purchase” of Bunny's annual report, achieving revenue of 9.063 billion yuan (yoy +1.63%) in 2023, net profit to mother of 689 million yuan (yoy +54.66%, previously stated), and deducted 583 million yuan (yoy +68.30%).
Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 3.333 billion yuan (yoy +9.46%, qoq +34.99%) and net profit to mother of 232 million yuan (yoy +311.38%, qoq +37.97%). We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.91/1.05/1.18 yuan respectively (previous value: 0.93/1.11 yuan 2024-2025). Comparatively, the company Wind agreed to expect the average PE value to be 10 times. Considering that the company has both brand and scarce channel advantages, the company was given 14xPE in 24 years, with a target price of 12.72 yuan (previous value 13.8 yuan) to maintain a “purchase”.
Revenue from the main wood-based panel industry grew steadily. The annual gross margin of the decorative materials/custom home furnishing business (industry) achieved revenue of 68.56/21.17 billion yuan respectively in 2023, +3.23%/-2.77% year-on-year. The decorative materials business remained steady. Among them, board product revenue (Class A) was 4.434 billion yuan, -1.08% year over year; board brand usage fee (Class B) revenue was 432 million yuan, +14.32% year over year. We estimate that the revenue of board products after conversion of Class A+B was about 11.3 billion yuan, +7.8%. Influence continued to increase; the comprehensive gross profit margin for 23 years was 18.42%, +0.24pct year on year, with gross profit margin of 16.52%/23.77% for decoration materials/custom home furnishing business, +0.64/-0.32pct; 23Q4 comprehensive gross profit margin 17.68%, same /month-on-month -0.48/+0.81 pct, Q4 gross margin declined slightly year on year or due to the company actively controlling the revenue scale of Class B business in the second half of the year.
Expense ratios decreased over a 23-year period; cash flow improved substantially
The cost rate for the 23-year period was 6.78%, -1.72pct, of which the sales/management/R&D/finance ratio was 3.26%/2.92%/0.77%/-0.17%, -0.41/-0.03/-0.37pct. The company continued to strengthen cost control, and the absolute value of sales/management expenses all declined year-on-year. Net interest rate/net interest rate without return to mother in '23 was 7.61%/6.44%, +2.61/+2.55pct year on year; 23Q4 was 6.97%/6.29%, +5.13/+5.76pct year on year, +0.15/-0.02pct month on month. At the end of 23, the company's balance ratio/interest-bearing debt ratio was 47.56%/1.86%, -5.29/ -6.6pct year-on-year. Net operating cash flow for the year was 1.91 billion yuan, +104.6% year-on-year, and 23Q4 net operating cash flow +1,036 billion yuan.
A higher dividend rate level rewards investors well; 24Q1 revenue recovery According to the company's annual report, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.5 yuan for every 10 shares. We estimate that the dividend rate is about 66%, and the dividend rate is about 5.6%. Higher dividends give back to investors. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 1,483 billion yuan (yoy +33.37%, qoq -55.50%) and net profit of 0.89 million yuan (yoy +18.81%, qoq -61.89%). The revenue was relatively well repaired, mainly due to the company's decorative materials business revenue up 36.1% year on year; gross profit margin was 17.86%, -4.88/+0.19pct; year-on-year expense ratio of 8.64%, year-on-year; net operating cash flow was -881 million yuan, year-on-year This is mainly due to the company's payment due for the purchase price of the product. The current payment ratio was 160.2%, and the year-on-year ratio was +39.2pct.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials are rising rapidly; competition in the industry is worsening; accounts receivable are greatly reduced in value.