新兴行业增速更高，公司在科技类行业MES 中份额居前列。根据smm 援引cpia 预测，2024-2025 年全球光伏装机规模增速约为10.26%和7.44%。根据Prismark 和中商产业研究院预测，2024 年我国PCB 市场增速有望达到6.59%。据尚普咨询集团的预测，2023-2025 年，中国白色家电行业市场规模增速约为3.83%、3.69%和3.56%。赛意信息在传统的家电领域市场份额第一，达到了16.7%，在高科技电子级计算机通信MES 解决方案厂商份额也是占比第一，达到了15.6%，在新能源MES 占比第二，达到10.6%。未来随着行业的增长，公司有望受益。Core views
In 2027, the domestic ERP market is close to 70 billion, and the middle and high-end still have plenty of room to replace domestic production. According to the forecast of the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, China's ERP software market is expected to reach around 68.2 billion yuan in 2027, and the average growth rate will remain around 11% in 2023-2027, which is higher than the global average growth rate. According to the “2021 White Paper on the Development of Industrial Software in China”, high-end ERP software for large and medium-sized enterprises in China is still dominated by foreign manufacturers. In the middle and high-end ERP market, the share of foreign investment exceeds 65%, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in domestic production. The market information is expected to benefit from the acceleration of the domestic production process.
The total market size of MES solutions exceeds 10 billion dollars, and the penetration rate is increasing. According to IDC data, the total market share of manufacturing execution system (MES) solutions in China (including software and services) reached RMB 12.54 billion in 2022. According to data from the China Business Intelligence Network, the overall MES penetration rate in China is low. The MES penetration rate in the automobile manufacturing, pharmaceutical, electronics industry, basic chemicals, equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment, textiles and clothing industries is less than 30%, and there is still plenty of room for improvement in the future.
Emerging industries are growing at a higher rate, and the company has the highest share of MES in the technology industry. According to SMM quoting CPIA's forecast, the global PV installed capacity growth rate from 2024-2025 is about 10.26% and 7.44%. According to Prismark and the China Business Research Institute, China's PCB market growth rate is expected to reach 6.59% in 2024. According to the forecast of Shamp Consulting Group, the market size of China's white goods industry will grow by about 3.83%, 3.69%, and 3.56% in 2023-2025. Saiyi Information has the largest market share in the traditional home appliance field, reaching 16.7%. It also has the largest share of high-tech electronic computer communication MES solution manufacturers, reaching 15.6%, and the second largest share of new energy MES, reaching 10.6%. The company is expected to benefit as the industry grows in the future.
The company is closely tied to major customers, and MetaERP is a core partner. The company stated during the investor relations exchange that the company has maintained a long-term good cooperative relationship with Huawei and is currently the company's largest customer. On April 20, 2023, Huawei announced the successful development of an autonomous and controlled MetaERP. As a core partner of Huawei MetaERP, the competition attended the Pledge Conference and was honored. As a core partner, the company will keep up with Huawei and go deeper into the MetaERP strategy.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. The company's pan-ERP business is expected to benefit from the acceleration of the domestic substitution process, and the company's intelligent manufacturing business is expected to benefit from the growth of the downstream market and the gradual increase in MES penetration rate. The company's revenue is expected to maintain steady growth in the future, and gross margin is expected to rise steadily. In 2023-2025, the company's net profit to mother will be 278 million yuan, 338 million yuan, and 416 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.36%, 21.72%, and 22.99%, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.68, 0.82, and 1.01 yuan, respectively. Corresponding to the closing price of 16.71 yuan on April 11, 2024, PE was 24.67 times, 20.27, and 16.48 times, respectively.
Risk warning
The development of the industry fell short of expectations, domestic substitution fell short of expectations, and the concentration of customers was high.
