Outstanding performance and continued improvement in profitability
During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 602,315 billion yuan +42.0% 6, net profit to mother of 30.041 billion yuan, +80.7% year on year, gross margin of 20.296, +3.2pcts year on year, net interest rate of 5.2%, and +1.opcts year on year. Among them, Q4 had revenue of 180,041 billion yuan in a single quarter, +15.9%/+11.0% year on month, net profit of 8.674 billion yuan, +18.6%/-16.7% year on month, gross profit margin 21.2%, +2.2 pcts year on year, net profit margin 5.0%, and +0.1 pcts year over year. Since 2021, the company's profitability has increased year by year, mainly due to the scale effect of reducing costs and expanding profit margins, the continued decline in lithium carbonate prices to ease pressure on raw materials, and the continuous release of high-end products to increase profits. At the same time, the bargaining power of the company's industrial chain increased. During the reporting period, the company's inventory turnover days were 62.5 days (62.7 days in 2022), accounts receivable turnover days was 30.1 days (31.9 days in 2022), and accounts payable turnover days was 125.4 days (109.3 days in 2022).
The global trend of automobile electrification is on the rise, and the price-for-volume superposition policy pushes the Chinese market to usher in additional growth
The global tram growth rate is still developing rapidly. According to EVsales data, global NEV sales volume in 2023 was 14.016 million units, +33.2% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 16.1%. In 2024, sales are expected to remain optimistic and reach 17.5 million units, +24.9% YoY, and the penetration rate is expected to cross the 20.0% threshold. The domestic market growth rate in 2023 is in line with expectations. According to China Automobile Association data, sales of new energy vehicles were 9.495 million units, +379% year-on-year. In 2024, sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed expectations due to the “price for volume” tram price war and the promulgation of the consumer goods trade-in policy. According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, it is estimated that in 2024, China's tram sales volume is expected to reach 12 million units, +26.4% year-on-year, and the penetration rate is close to 40%.
Continuing to increase overseas markets to consolidate the leading position in the world, large-scale cost reduction plus high-end premiums to increase profits, the company continues to consolidate its leading position in the world. According to Clean Technica's caliber, in 2023, the company's global NEV sales volume reached 2.886 million units, +54.8% 6. The global market share surpassed 21%, +2.6 pcts year on year, ranking first in the world. Among them, the overseas market is the company's key development area. In 2023, the company's overseas revenue reached 160.22 billion yuan, +75.2% year on year, and the revenue share rose to 26.6%, +1.8 pcts year on year. The company's overseas sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 243,000 units in 2023, with a market share of 4.1%, of which the 2023M12 market share reached 5.9% in a single month. At the same time, the company continued to lay out production capacity in Thailand, Brazil, Uzbekistan, and Hungary during the reporting period, and is expected to circumvent policy and trade barriers by going overseas and further expand growth space. Since 2024, global NEV M1-2/China NEV Q1 sales volume was 189.8/1.769 million units, +28.7% 6/ +34.5% year-on-year, showing a strong growth trend. Among them, the company's M1-2 overseas market share and Q1 domestic market share were 7.1%/33.1% respectively, and competitiveness continued to increase.
Benefiting from declining lithium prices and large-scale resonance, the company's ability to control costs has performed well. According to the company's annual report, the company's bicycle cost in 2023 was 123,300 yuan, -11.1% year over year; affected by the 2023H2 tram price war, the company's bicycle sales price fell to 159,900 yuan, 8.0% year on year. In 2023, the company's high-end series took off, and the total sales volume of U8 and Equation Panther reached 137,000 units, accounting for 4.5% of total sales. The high-end series layout raised the price center. In 2023, the gross profit of bicycles was 37,000 yuan, +3.9% year-on-year, and profits were further increased.
High-end technology continues to iterate to stabilize its leading edge and seize new opportunities in the intelligent market. On the basis of continuing to promote the application of existing technology, the company has successively released world-leading forward-looking and disruptive technologies such as the Yisifang architecture, Yunnian intelligent body control system, Tenjin Eye advanced intelligent driving assistance system, and the DM0 super hybrid off-road platform, maintaining a leading position in the field of technology. At the same time, under the trend of intelligent driving, the company obtained the country's first L3 autonomous high-speed highway test license, demonstrating the company's leading position in the field of intelligent driving.
Investment advice and profit forecasting
The global tram growth rate is expected to grow steadily, and the combination of price in exchange for volume and trade-in two-wheel drive is gaining momentum for the second time in many domestic markets. The electrification of the automobile market is still showing an upward trend due to disturbances in overseas policies and trade barriers. The company is a leading global tram company, ranking first in the world in 2023; continues to lead in high-end technology and pioneering intelligent layout; intensive overseas production capacity planning avoids policies and trade disruptors to share overseas market development dividends; expands market share and reduces costs and repairs profits under scale effects. In summary, we believe that the company has high barriers and better-than-industry growth expectations. It maintains a “buy” rating and predicts that the company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 was 358.6, 468.9, and 59.83 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE values of 17, 13, and 10 times, respectively.
Risk warning
The macroeconomic economy is sluggish, and tram car sales fall short of expectations; tram policy changes; company production capacity investment falls short of expectations; trade barriers; and raw material prices fluctuate greatly.