The company's recent situation
On April 23, Xiaomi held the 2024 Investor Day event. The company's management shared the company's development status and prospects with investors around the four major business segments of Xiaomi cars, mobile phones, IoT, and the Internet.
reviews
The number of Xiaomi SU7 locks exceeded market expectations, and the annual delivery target was a minimum of 100,000 units. The company said that as of April 20, the number of Xiaomi SU7 lock orders exceeded 70,000, of which SU7 Max models accounted for 43.16%. In terms of delivery plans, the standard and max versions of the Xiaomi SU7 were delivered ahead of schedule on April 18, and the Xiaomi SU7 Pro version is expected to be delivered in May. The company said it is promoting a comprehensive production increase in the industry chain, with a target of delivering more than 10,000 vehicles within three months of release, with a minimum delivery target of 100,000 vehicles in 2024. Furthermore, the company said that with the support of the supply chain, the gross margin of Xiaomi's automotive business is expected to be 5-10%.
Clarify the goals for the new decade and focus on building the underlying technology. On Investor Day, Lei Jun said that in 2023, the company clarified the goals, overall strategy, and reinterpreted cultural values for the new decade. Looking forward to the future, Lei Jun said that Surge OS, AI and chips are the three underlying technologies for Xiaomi's future development: 1) Surge OS: In October 2023, Xiaomi released Surge OS, covering more than 57 million units/470,000 units/130,000 units/8 million units, respectively, providing technical support for the “entire ecosystem of people and cars”; 2) AI technology: Xiaomi has continued to invest in AI technology for a long time and has achieved comprehensive self-research. The matrix parameters of the self-developed LLM model will cover 0.7B~30B in the future. Continued Empower the entire automotive ecosystem and help the digital upgrading of new retail and intelligent manufacturing; 3) Chips: Xiaomi and Qualcomm and MediaTek cooperate deeply, and as large model applications are implemented, the company may conduct in-depth chip joint optimization.
We are optimistic that the company will deeply cultivate the underlying technology and promote the performance improvement of various products.
Mobile phone shipments will return to growth in 2024, and we are optimistic that the automotive business will contribute to revenue growth. In 1Q24, the number of Xiaomi mobile phones shipped 40.8 million units, up 33.8% year on year, and the global share reached 14.1%. Looking ahead to 2024, the company's target main business revenue will exceed 300 billion yuan, mobile phone shipments will increase by 15 to 20 million units year on year, and the main business expenses ratio is expected to remain the same year on year. In addition, the company expects to invest 24 billion yuan in R&D throughout the year, of which 110-12 billion yuan is expected to be invested in innovative businesses such as smart cars. We are optimistic about the collaborative development of the company's multiple businesses under the “Full Ecosystem of People and Cars” strategy.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Keep the original profit forecast unchanged. The current stock price corresponds to the 2024/2025 core business (excluding car construction) adjusted net profit price-earnings ratio 13.54/13.47 times. Maintaining an outperforming industry and a target price of HK$18.0 (SOTP valuation), corresponds to an adjusted net profit price-earnings ratio of 14.63/14.55 times for the core business in 2024/2025, with an upward margin of 8.04%.
risks
The global macroeconomic economy affects demand for smart phones and IoT products, and smart car sales are lower than expected.