Incident: 2023 revenue of $544 million (+14.6%, same in parentheses, same below), net profit to mother of 154 million yuan (-24.6%), net profit of 140 million yuan (-23.4%); 2024Q1 revenue of 146 million yuan (+6.7%), net profit of 30.67 million yuan (-31.9%), net profit of non-return to mother of 30.28 million yuan (-32.1%).
Revenue decelerated and expenses increased, and profits were under pressure in the short term: Excluding specific products related to acute respiratory infectious diseases, the company's 2023 revenue was 499 million yuan (+29.5%), and 2024Q1 revenue was 138 million yuan (+16.0%). Looking at regular business by region, domestic revenue of $169 million (+16.8%); foreign revenue of 358 million yuan (+37.0%), of which American revenue was 229 million yuan (+29.8%, accounting for 46% of the company's total revenue. The revenue share below all excludes specific acute respiratory infectious disease-related products), and European revenue of 71.62 million yuan (+69.5%, accounting for 14.4% of the company's total revenue). The company's gross margin is stable, and the decline in profit is mainly due to the company strengthening its overseas market layout and continuing to increase R&D investment, leading to an increase in expenses. Expenses increased by 28.7%/28.1% year-on-year during 2023/2024Q1, respectively. The number of R&D personnel increased 31% year-on-year in 2023, accounting for 32% of the total number of employees.
Product abundance continues to increase, deepening global layout: We believe ① the company is in a period of rapid development, and profits are under pressure due to declining revenue growth, but the company has gradually entered the harvest period. The number of SKUs increased 41% year-on-year in 2023, and the product richness has further increased. The Suzhou GMP cytokine plant is expected to be put into operation in 2024H2; moreover, the company continues to explore cutting-edge technology and has successfully developed products using AI technology, and is optimistic about the company's long-term development prospects; ② The company's overseas regular business revenue in 2023 accounted for 66% of total revenue. , Japan and other places have set up new subsidiaries, and are planning to establish overseas production bases to enhance global supply capacity; the overseas market space is far greater than the domestic market, and the company's overseas market coverage can still be further improved. As the company's overseas investment increases and overseas biomedical investment and financing gradually recovers, overseas performance is likely to exceed expectations.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Affected by biomedical investment and financing, the company's downstream demand is weak. We adjusted the company's 2024-2025 revenue from 6.94/895 million yuan to 650/799 million yuan, with an estimated 2026 revenue of 959 million yuan; adjusted the company's net profit to the mother from 2024-332 million yuan to 168/216 million yuan, and the estimated net profit to the mother in 2026 is 270 million yuan. The current stock price corresponding to 2024-2026 PE is 27/21/17 ×, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations, exchange gains and losses, new product development and market expansion fall short of expectations, etc.