It's been a good week for Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:601689) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 5.6% to CN¥57.37. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥20b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥1.95 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ningbo Tuopu GroupLtd from 18 analysts is for revenues of CN¥26.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 34% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 35% to CN¥2.50. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥26.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.56 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥77.03, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ningbo Tuopu GroupLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥105 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥45.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 34% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 31% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 18% annually. So although Ningbo Tuopu GroupLtd is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ningbo Tuopu GroupLtd. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥77.03, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ningbo Tuopu GroupLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ningbo Tuopu GroupLtd has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.