China's assets are on the rise! Foreigners continue to sing a lot

The money-making effect is spreading! Tencent surged 13% in 3 days, and QDII funds beat back Hong Kong stocks

券商中國 · Apr 25 08:43

来源：券商中国
作者：许诺

在公募强劲加仓、政策利好和超跌反弹的多重助推下，香港$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$创下四个月以来的新高，超1000只基金抱团的$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$三日大涨13%，而这超1000只产品中约有半数为A股主题基金产品。

此外，最新的公募一季报还显示，越来越多的QDII基金开始将美股仓位撤回港股，这与去年一季度QDII减配港股增仓美股的操作完全相反。

港股做多效应向基金二线股扩散

4月24日，恒生指数再次跳空上涨，指数升幅超2.2%，收盘约17201.27点，创下四个月以来的新高，本周也成为公募基金做多港股市场最为显著的一次，恒生指数自周一开始连续三个交易日强劲拉升，公募基金在今年一季度期间集中加仓的腾讯控股三日大涨13.3%。

值得一提的是，周三的港股市场正凸显出做多效应，以腾讯为代表的一线基金重仓股向二线甚至三线基金重仓股扩散，301只基金重仓的快手再度拉升8.1%，本周三日涨幅已为基金经理贡献20%的收益，40只基金持仓的$哔哩哔哩-W (09626.HK)$周三收盘亦升8.8%，而在去年底被基金经理大幅减仓的$商汤-W (00020.HK)$，在刚刚创下新低后被基金经理重新覆盖，这使商汤在周三单日飙升31%。

“我们注意到港股市场已存在许多扣除现金等价物后，市值不足20亿甚至10亿港元的好公司，在经历严重的非理性杀跌后，此类公司的基本面变得更好，而股价不仅滞后且呈现反向杀跌，这意味着此类公司基于中长期的布局机会已经出现。”深圳地区的一位基金经理认为，港股的调整较A股提前一年半左右，而当中国经济复苏呈现出加速态势，港股优质资产的复苏也将更快呈现出弹性。

公募在香港市场最爱抱团的腾讯控股的表现，被认为是互联网赛道复苏和港股活跃度拐点的核心指标，当越来越多的公募基金从此前减配腾讯等港股，变成积极加仓腾讯等港股公司，也意味着港股从投资安全、潜在收益空间的角度，正变得越来越具有吸引力。

根据刚披露完毕的公募一季度报告显示，截至今年3月末已有高达1041只基金将腾讯列为十大核心股票池，这1041只基金中有超过一半的基金产品实际上为“A股主题基金”，以明星基金经理李耀柱管理的广发科技动力基金为例，截至今年一季度末，该产品十大重仓股中七只为A股公司，三只为港股股票，三只港股中腾讯为第一大基金重仓股，另一只港股则被列为第二大股票，这显示出A股基金产品已开始将港股股票，作为其业绩进攻的核心动力。

QDII仓位转移

QDII基金此前以美股、欧股市场作为核心卖点吸引投资者，而今港股QDII基金开启赚钱效应甚至挤入全部QDII业绩十强之列，也使得此类产品开始一扫阴霾。

券商中国记者注意到，截至目前，今年以来QDII基金业绩收益最高为14.10%，而港股QDII基金的最佳收益追平这一收益已近在眼前，大成基金旗下的大成港股精选QDII年内收益已达12.17%，排名今年来全部QDII业绩第三。此外，重仓港股的摩根中国世纪QDII年内收益为11%，也位列QDII十强。

顶流基金经理张坤管理的港股基金QDII，也重新开启上涨之路，张坤管理的易方达亚洲精选QDII此前在2021年、2022年、2023年分别损失29.25%、7.82%、9.09%，而今该产品在腾讯、$阿里巴巴-SW (09988.HK)$等股票强劲上涨的支撑下，一举促使产品业绩年内收红，今年该产品已取得超6.11%的正收益。

被基金持有人吐槽最多的互联网赛道QDII，此前甚至导致买QDII的A股上市业绩暴亏，而今各种互联网赛道QDII基金产品均出现强劲复苏趋势，重仓港股的嘉实全球互联网、富国中国中小盘QDII、华安大中华升级QDII等均出现净值的强劲拉升，在很大程度上是因为基金经理开始将美股仓位移至港股。

与去年同期QDII基金经理减仓港股，将仓位分配给美股市场甚至港股仓位几乎全部减掉所不同，越来越多的QDII在今年一季度开始将美股仓位分配给港股。以嘉实全球互联网基金QDII为例，最新一季度报告显示基金经理王鑫晨将美股仓位显著下调，减仓美股的同时大力加仓港股，最新港股仓位已跃升到34%。业内人士判断，考虑到港股行情刚刚启动且超跌严重，后续重仓美股的QDII基金经理仍有充足的仓位向港股移动。

港股“诚意”满满

A股基金经理、美股QDII均开始抢筹港股，其中的市场逻辑是什么?

“站在一季度展望全年已经感觉到今年可能是香港市场系统性风险得到较好释放的一年。”富国中国中小盘QDII基金经理张峰认为，国内的经济逐步走稳，会带来比较温和的宏观环境。尽管如此，整体宏观经济的真正重新走向稳健增长还需要一些时间，但国内经济的大环境在逐步改善。QDII一方面还是继续持有和买入一些深度价值股，另一方面精选一些成长个股。在大环境比较稳定的基础下，市场活跃度增加。如果挖掘到一些超跌、质地比较优良的深度价值股和成长性个股，有望给组合带来比较好的收益。

国投瑞银价值发现基金经理刘扬认为，经济环境的确面临一定挑战，但经济韧性仍在，中国仍然拥有一大批优质的企业正在持续对科技和研发等领域进行投资，不断获取市场份额，并在国际市场上同全球知名企业形成竞争，这给基金自下而上择股策略带来更多潜在机会，港股市场应继续关注具有竞争优势的高质量公司，通过平衡成长性和估值之间的关系来把握整体市场的机会。

南方香港优选基金经理熊潇雅认为，前期大跌进一步凸显了港股的价值，资金开始布局基本面稳健，且分红回购意愿较强的公司。春节期间，核心消费数据比如白酒、旅游酒店、零售、餐饮等表现超出此前偏弱的预期，市场透过消费认为经济基本面正在逐步企稳，目前对港股充满信心。基金在维持行业均衡配置的前提下，整体仓位维持平稳，主要通过自下而上的选股获取超额收益，在行业中精选盈利改善、估值水平合理的行业龙头公司。

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China
Author: Promise

Driven by strong public equity increases, favorable policies, and a rebound over the fall, Hong Kong$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$It hit a new high in four months, with over 1,000 fund groups$TENCENT (00700.HK)$It surged 13% on the 3rd, and about half of the more than 1,000 products were A-share themed fund products.

Furthermore, the latest quarterly public offering report also shows that more and more QDII funds are beginning to withdraw their US stock positions to Hong Kong stocks. This is the complete opposite of QDII's operation of reducing allotments on Hong Kong stocks and increasing US stock positions in the first quarter of last year.

The effect of going long on Hong Kong stocks spreads to second-tier fund stocks

On April 24, the Hang Seng Index once again jumped higher. The index rose by more than 2.2% and closed at around 17201.27 points, a four-month high. This week also became the most prominent time for public funds to prolong in the Hong Kong stock market. The Hang Seng Index has been rising strongly for three consecutive trading days since Monday. Tencent Holdings, which concentrated on increasing public funds during the first quarter of this year, surged 13.3% on the 3rd.

It is worth mentioning that the Hong Kong stock market on Wednesday was showing a bulging effect. First-tier fund heavy stocks represented by Tencent spread to second-tier or even third-tier fund heavy stocks, and Kuaishou, which has heavy positions with 301 funds, once again raised 8.1%. The increase on the 3rd of this week has already contributed 20% of fund managers' earnings, and 40 funds are holding positions$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$The closing on Wednesday also rose 8.8%, and was drastically reduced by fund managers at the end of last year$SENSETIME-W (00020.HK)$After just hitting a new low, it was re-covered by fund managers, causing Shangtang to soar 31% in a single day on Wednesday.

“We have noticed that the Hong Kong stock market already has many good companies with a market capitalization of less than HK$2 billion or HK$1 billion after deducting cash equivalents. After experiencing a serious irrational decline, the fundamentals of such companies have improved, and the stock price not only lags behind but also shows a reverse decline. This means that opportunities for such companies based on medium- to long-term layout have already emerged.” A fund manager in Shenzhen believes that the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks is about a year and a half ahead of A-shares, and when China's economic recovery shows an accelerated trend, the recovery of high-quality assets in Hong Kong stocks will also be more elastic.

The performance of Tencent Holdings, which is the favorite group in the Hong Kong market, is considered a core indicator of the recovery of the Internet circuit and the inflection point of Hong Kong stock activity. As more and more public funds reduce their allocations to actively increase their holdings in Hong Kong stock companies such as Tencent, it also means that Hong Kong stocks are becoming more and more attractive from the perspective of investment safety and potential profit space.

According to the public offering report for the first quarter that has just been disclosed, as of the end of March this year, as many as 1,041 funds have listed Tencent as the top ten core stock pools. More than half of these 1,041 funds are actually “A-share themed funds”. Take the Guangfa Technology Power Fund managed by star fund manager Lee Yiu-chu as an example. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, seven of the top ten major stocks of this product were A-share companies, and three were Hong Kong stocks. Out of the three Hong Kong stocks, Tencent was listed as the second-largest A-share stock. Stock fund products have begun to include Hong Kong stocks, It is the core driving force behind its performance attack.

QDII position transfer

QDII funds previously used the US stock and European stock markets as core selling points to attract investors, but now the Hong Kong stock QDII fund has begun to have a profitable effect and even squeezed into the top ten QDII performers, causing such products to begin to sweep away the haze.

A reporter from brokerage China noticed that up to now, the QDII fund's performance income has been the highest since this year, and the best return of the Hong Kong Stock QDII Fund is almost right around the corner. Dacheng Hong Kong Stock Select QDII, a subsidiary of Dacheng Fund, has earned 12.17% during the year, ranking third in overall QDII performance this year. In addition, Morgan China Century QDII, which heavily stocks Hong Kong stocks, earned 11% during the year, and also ranked in the top ten QDII.

The Hong Kong stock fund QDII managed by top fund manager Zhang Kun has also restarted its upward path. E-Fangda Asia Select QDII, managed by Zhang Kun, previously lost 29.25%, 7.82%, and 9.09% in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, but now the product is on Tencent,$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$Supported by a strong rise in stocks, the product's performance became popular during the year. This year, the product has achieved a positive return of over 6.11%.

The Internet circuit QDII, which has been criticized the most by fund holders, even led to a sharp loss in the A-share listing performance of QDII. Today, various Internet circuit QDII fund products have shown a strong recovery trend. Harvest Global Internet, which heavily stocks Hong Kong stocks, Fuguo China's small to medium cap QDII, and Huada China's upgrade of QDII have all experienced strong increases in net worth, in large part because fund managers have begun to move US stock positions to Hong Kong stocks.

Unlike when QDII fund managers reduced their positions on Hong Kong stocks in the same period last year, allocating positions to the US stock market and even reducing almost all of their Hong Kong stock positions, more and more QDII began allocating US stock positions to Hong Kong stocks in the first quarter of this year. Take Harvest Global Internet Fund QDII as an example. The latest quarterly report shows that fund manager Wang Xinchen significantly lowered his US stock position. While reducing his position on US stocks, he also vigorously increased his position on Hong Kong stocks. The latest Hong Kong stock position has jumped to 34%. Industry insiders judged that considering that the Hong Kong stock market has just started and that it has seriously fallen, QDII fund managers who have taken heavy positions in US stocks since then still have sufficient positions to move to Hong Kong stocks.

Hong Kong stocks are full of “sincerity”

A-share fund managers and US stock QDII have all begun to grab Hong Kong stocks. What is the market logic?

“Looking ahead to the first quarter, I already feel that this year may be a year where systemic risks in the Hong Kong market are better released.” Zhang Feng, manager of the Fuguo China SME QDII fund, believes that the gradual stabilization of the domestic economy will bring about a relatively moderate macroeconomic environment. Despite this, it will take some time for the overall macroeconomy to actually return to steady growth, but the general environment of the domestic economy is gradually improving. On the one hand, QDII continues to hold and buy some deep value stocks, and on the other hand, it selects some growth stocks. Market activity has increased on the basis of a relatively stable environment. If we uncover some deep value stocks and growth stocks that have surpassed the decline and have excellent quality, it is expected to bring relatively good returns to the portfolio.

Liu Yang, manager of SDIC UBS Value Discovery Fund, believes that the economic environment is indeed facing certain challenges, but the economy is still resilient. China still has a large number of high-quality enterprises that continue to invest in technology and R&D, continue to gain market share, and compete with world-renowned companies in the international market. This brings more potential opportunities to the fund's bottom-up stock selection strategy. The Hong Kong stock market should continue to focus on high-quality companies with competitive advantages to seize overall market opportunities by balancing the relationship between growth and valuation.

Xiong Xiaoya, manager of Southern Hong Kong Preferred Fund, believes that the sharp decline in the previous period further highlighted the value of Hong Kong stocks. Companies with stable capital layout fundamentals and a strong desire to repurchase dividends have begun. During the Spring Festival, the performance of core consumption data such as liquor, tourist hotels, retail, and restaurants exceeded previous weak expectations. The market believes that economic fundamentals are gradually stabilizing through consumption, and is currently full of confidence in Hong Kong stocks. Under the premise of maintaining a balanced allocation in the industry, the fund's overall position remains stable. It mainly obtains excess income through bottom-up stock selection, and selects leading companies in the industry with improved profits and reasonable valuation levels.

Editor/jayden

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