Keboda released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: achieved revenue of 4.63 billion yuan in 2023, +37% year over year; realized net profit of 61 million yuan, +35% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.1%. The fourth quarter of 2023 achieved operating income of 1.43 billion yuan, up 49% year on year; net profit to mother was 150 million yuan, up 73% year on year, net profit margin 11.6%, +0.78 pct year on year, and -4 pct month on month. The first quarter of 2024 achieved revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, +55% year on year; realized net profit of 220 million yuan, +66% year on year, net interest rate 16.3%, +0.74 pct year on year, and +4.74 pct month on month.
In 2023, the endogenous growth momentum of business development was strong. New and old businesses developed collaboratively, the early layout was ideal, and new customers such as BMW contributed significantly. By business, lighting control systems achieved revenue of 2.37 billion yuan in 2023, +36% year-on-year; energy management systems achieved revenue of 430 million yuan, +247% year-on-year.
Focus on new fields, lay out new tracks, and guarantee investment in new technology research and development. On the basis of early technology accumulation, new tracks such as body domain control, chassis domain control, glass discoloration, Efuse, next-generation lighting control technology, and electric drive control were gradually laid out, and were targeted by well-known domestic and foreign customer projects such as Ideal, BYD, Daimler, and Volkswagen Group, respectively. The R&D cost rate in 2023 is 9.6% to support research and development of new technologies in the fields of intelligent control and control integration related to lighting, batteries, car bodies, and chassis.
Selected for Volkswagen Group's next-generation headlight controller project. According to Koboda's official website, in early 2024, the company was designated for the “Next Generation LED Headlight Controller” platform from Audi in Germany. The standard LED headlight controller in this targeted project will also cover all passenger car brands such as Skoda, SEAT, Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Bentley, and Lamborghini. Currently, Keboda is the only supplier for this project. The products cover many platform models of the Volkswagen Group, and the life cycle is expected to exceed 10 years.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be RMB 62/77/9.1 billion yuan, respectively, net profit to mother of RMB 896/11.90/RMB 1,429 million, and EPS of RMB 22/2.94/3.54, respectively.
Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 28 to 34x PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 62.10 to 75.40 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Global passenger car sales have fallen short of expectations, and raw material prices have risen sharply.